U.S. naval forces have begun a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical and virtually irreplaceable route for oil and gas exports from the Middle East. Until recently, Washington had been demanding that Iran reopen the strait, accusing it of destabilizing global markets. Now, the United States itself is restricting maritime traffic. Here is a closer look at what is happening and how the situation is interpreted by the media and experts.
Following the failure of negotiations with Tehran, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would begin blocking vessels linked to Iranian ports. Officially, this is not a full closure of the strait. According to U.S. Central Command, the restrictions apply to ships heading to Iranian ports, departing from them, or sailing along Iran’s coastline. Transit through the main shipping channel remains permitted, allowing Washington to present these measures as a form of control rather than a total blockade. As The Guardian notes, the United Kingdom, despite U.S. statements, does not plan to participate in the operation.
To understand this decision, it is important to look back at the early stages of the conflict. From the outset of hostilities, Iran was the first to restrict navigation in the strait. Tehran declared it closed, carried out strikes against tankers, and warned of possible mining. At the same time, it established a system of selective passage, allowing certain vessels to sail along its coast in exchange for payment. As a result, maritime traffic collapsed: whereas more than one hundred ships per day transited the strait before the war, only a handful do so now. Most of these were tankers carrying Iranian oil to China and India.
Attempts to stabilize the situation through diplomacy produced only temporary results. After the April 8 ceasefire, Washington insisted on a full reopening of the strait, but Iran agreed only to a limited resumption of traffic. According to the Financial Times, this indicated that Tehran retained control of the situation and continued to use the strait as leverage. It is precisely this dynamic, analysts say, that prompted the United States to shift its strategy.
Media outlets including CNN and BBC link Washington’s decision to several factors. First, it is an attempt to regain the initiative after failed negotiations. Second, rising fuel prices are increasing pressure on the U.S. administration, becoming a sensitive domestic political issue. Third, the blockade allows Washington to directly limit Iranian oil exports and thus reduce Tehran’s revenues.
In practice, the blockade is likely to function more as a system of control and coercion than as a traditional military operation. Experts interviewed by The Guardian believe U.S. forces will try to force tankers to change course, conduct inspections, and, if necessary, detain vessels. In the event of escalation, operations to seize ships involving special forces cannot be ruled out. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, currently deployed in the region, could play a central role in these operations.
The economic consequences are already raising serious concerns. According to Reuters and the Financial Times, the blockade could trigger a new surge in oil prices and intensify inflationary pressures worldwide. Even a partial reduction in energy flows from the Middle East is enough to create significant market volatility.
Another key question is Iran’s response. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already warned that military vessels approaching the strait could be considered in violation of the ceasefire. According to The Wall Street Journal, if pressure increases, Tehran may escalate the conflict by targeting alternative export routes or attempting to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through its allies.
The main paradox of the situation is that the United States is now using the same lever it previously criticized Iran for employing. However, Washington emphasizes a difference in objectives: while Tehran seeks to use the strait as a tool of pressure, the United States claims it aims to take control of the route in order to restore stability and predictability to global markets.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the current situation could mark the beginning of a new and more prolonged phase of the conflict. If the U.S. strategy succeeds, Iran will lose a key lever of influence and markets may stabilize. Otherwise, the world could face a prolonged crisis affecting the entire global trading system.
