The United States and Iran have signed a truce that reopens the Strait of Hormuz to tankers. Of all the possible outcomes, Trump chose the diplomatic path. Washington will have to return tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets to Iran and may have to pay more still through a fund for the country’s reconstruction. Tehran, for its part, has offered only a vague promise to discuss the future of its nuclear program within 60 days. On paper, this is an American defeat: the United States did not achieve its political goals, gained no leverage over Iran, lost the trust of its allies, and paid into the bargain. But Trump clearly had no wish to get drawn into a more intense war on the eve of November’s midterm elections to Congress.
The first round of negotiations with Iran collapsed as early as June 19, owing to the escalation on the Lebanese front, which is formally not part of the deal but is capable of blowing it apart.
What’s in the agreement?
The 14-point “memorandum of understanding” was signed by Trump and the Iranian side in mid-June (the formal signing took place on June 17). The text has not been officially released; only versions circulated by Iranian and Arab media exist. In essence, the parties cease hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon; the United States lifts the blockade within a month, and Iran reopens the strait within the same period. Then come 60 days of negotiations on the nuclear program. If they succeed, the United States lifts the sanctions (according to one leak, it would immediately unfreeze $24 billion), and a reconstruction plan worth at least $300 billion would be drawn up for Iran.
What does this mean for the two sides?
Trump abandoned escalation and brought the situation back to the status quo of February 2026. The United States failed to force Iran to wind down its nuclear program: the war broke out in February right after negotiations on this very issue, and now the two sides are returning to the table with the same result. Iran formally loses its main lever, the strait reopens, and traffic through it rose markedly just hours after the signing. Nor was Iran’s missile capability destroyed: according to intelligence leaks, Tehran has retained more than half of its missiles.
Is the truce solid?
The first twenty-four hours provided the answer. The talks in Switzerland were postponed and Vice President Vance’s trip did not take place. The stumbling block is Lebanon: neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed the agreement, and Iran is prepared to risk a renewed war to defend its interests there. On the night of June 19, the fighting intensified, leaving at least 18 people dead and four Israeli soldiers killed, and the Iranians did not travel to Switzerland, demanding that the Israeli strikes be halted first. By evening, Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a truce. The outcome of the talks on uranium is equally uncertain: according to leaks, US intelligence learned that Tehran had no intention whatsoever of negotiating.
Were there any alternatives?
Every military option promised heavy losses with no guarantee of success: a naval operation in the strait, with months of fighting and the loss of ships; a total blockade with the closing of ports or the seizure of an oil terminal; a “soft” forcing of the blockade, which is precisely what Washington employed; and finally, strikes on civilian infrastructure, more effective as a threat. Each option meant a shift to a full-scale war lasting many months, with the depletion of precision-munition stockpiles. For that, Trump was not ready.
So did Trump lose?
Before the war, the United States pressured Tehran through the mere threat of an air campaign. That campaign has now taken place and brought no strategic result. The lever no longer works, and Washington has no wish to go beyond an air war. Iran, for its part, showed that its threats were real, upending the established order across the Middle East for months, and its government now looks even more secure than before the war. On paper, this is an American defeat. But for Trump personally, the result is acceptable: he settled the main thing, namely not getting drawn into a long war on the eve of the elections. Only one question remains: how long will the truce hold?
