Lithuania has officially confirmed that it is holding talks with the United States on the possible deployment of American nuclear weapons on its territory. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas made the statement, Politico reports. “Discussions are ongoing. Lithuania, of course, is not standing aside,” he told reporters.
The negotiations come against the backdrop of a planned reduction in the US military presence in Lithuania. According to officials in Vilnius, around a thousand American troops are set to leave the country, with the future of their deployment said to be currently “under review.” Hosting nuclear weapons appears to be seen as a way to offset the weakening of conventional military support.
The Financial Times reported this week that Washington was, in principle, prepared to consider deploying nuclear weapons in Poland and the Baltic states. According to the paper, the plans involve bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Such a move would be intended to reassure Washington’s NATO allies that scaling back the conventional contingent does not mean weaker security guarantees.
The main obstacle is a legal one: Lithuania’s Constitution explicitly prohibits the stationing of weapons of mass destruction or foreign military bases on its soil. In May, however, Speaker of the Seimas Juozas Olekas and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda backed discussion of amendments that would lift the ban. Vilnius is thus signalling its readiness to revise its Basic Law to make way for a possible American arsenal.
At present, US dual-capable aircraft able to carry nuclear weapons are stationed in six NATO countries: Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. There is no precedent for deploying such weapons in states that joined the Alliance after 1997.
That restraint stems from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, which states that the Alliance has “no intention, no plan and no reason” to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of its new members. The potential arrival of American warheads in Lithuania would amount to a de facto break with that commitment.
Moscow, for its part, stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which borders Lithuania, following the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
