Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have called on Armenia to hold a nationwide referendum as soon as possible: the country must choose between remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) or continuing its path toward European Union membership. The joint statement was signed by Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Sadyr Japarov, following a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana. Armenia was represented at the summit by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, it was to him that the statement was handed, according to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend.
“Substantial Risks to Economic Security”
The document states that Yerevan’s preparations for EU accession create “substantial risks to the economic security” of member states, and that EAEU partners intend to prevent the resulting damage. The leaders declared their shared position on the need to hold a referendum in Armenia, as soon as possible, on either joining the European Union or remaining within the EAEU. The possible consequences for Armenia in the event of further rapprochement with Brussels will be examined separately at the next Supreme Council meeting in December. The Kremlin had previously articulated its arguments on the benefits of membership: spokesman Dmitry Peskov had noted that participation in the EAEU guaranteed Yerevan stable annual economic growth and a boost to GDP.
Putin Draws Parallel with Ukraine
At a press conference following his visit to Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin compared the current situation around Armenia to what had preceded the crisis in Ukraine, warning of the risks of a similar scenario. As early as April 1st, during a meeting with Pashinyan in Moscow, the Russian leader had stated that Armenia’s simultaneous membership in both the EAEU and the EU was impossible, while allowing for the possibility of a “soft, intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce.”
Yerevan’s Position
Pashinyan has repeatedly emphasized that Armenia will continue, for as long as possible, to cooperate simultaneously with both Western countries and EAEU states. In his words, once that possibility is lost, the final choice will be made by the Armenian people themselves. The Prime Minister has also made clear that he will not allow the Union’s mechanisms to be used against his own country.
The statement puts Yerevan in a difficult position. The wording of the referendum question, its timeline and the very fact of agreeing to hold one remain matters of dispute and organizing a nationwide vote before the parliamentary elections is physically impossible.
The June 7 Elections and the Deterioration with Moscow
The statement comes against a backdrop of sharply deteriorating relations between Moscow and Yerevan. Armenia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 7, have effectively become a test of Pashinyan’s pro-Western course.
An additional source of tension lies in the fate of businessman Samvel Karapetyan, head of the Tashir industrial and construction group. Moscow is demanding that he be allowed to participate in the election campaign; in Armenia, he is under house arrest on charges of inciting a seizure of power, and his political movement has effectively been barred from the vote. According to pollsters, Pashinyan maintains his lead in the ratings, followed by Karapetyan, Gagik Tsarukyan and a bloc led by former president Robert Kocharyan.
At the same time, Russia has begun imposing restrictions on Armenian imports, measures that hit the country’s agricultural producers hardest and are seen in Yerevan as an instrument of political pressure.
The outcome of this standoff will largely be determined by the results of the June 7 vote.
