Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Armenia for June 7. But for Moscow, this is above all a moment to decide who must win. Russia is exerting pressure on Yerevan on several fronts simultaneously: economic, diplomatic, and informational. At the heart of the conflict stands incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his drive toward closer ties with the European Union.
The Origins of the Rift
Armenia and Russia began to drift apart gradually after 2020, when Moscow effectively stood aside and refused to support Yerevan in the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, which had positioned itself as a guarantor of security in the post-Soviet space, did not intervene. Armenia lost. In the years that followed, Yerevan set about methodically diversifying its external ties: it stepped up negotiations with the EU, expanded cooperation with the United States, and suspended its participation in several CSTO structures.
The Food Embargo
Rosselkhoznadzor has been steadily closing the Russian market to Armenian goods. Already banned are strawberries, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs, certain brands of cognac and wine, Jermuk mineral water, flowers, fish, apricots, cherries, plums, and grapes. Each ban is formally justified by references to “violations of phytosanitary standards.” Moscow has, however, long used trade pressure as a political signal. Armenia exports a substantial share of its agricultural output to Russia, and the blow to this channel is a painful one.
The Threat to Energy Supply
Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev went further than the agricultural restrictions. He made clear that Moscow could halt deliveries of natural gas, petroleum products, and uncut diamonds if Armenia continued its march toward EU membership. For a landlocked country that depends on Russian gas, this threat is entirely concrete.
The Four-Country Ultimatum
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan issued a joint demand: Armenia must hold a referendum and choose between the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union. The very fact that four EAEU member states coordinated such an ultimatum on the eve of Armenian elections speaks to the degree of organization behind this campaign. Pashinyan refused. In his words, the question of EU accession remains theoretical for now and requires no referendum. The response was received in Moscow with little satisfaction.
Putin and the Ukrainian Analogy
The most alarming signal came in the form of a public statement by Vladimir Putin following the EAEU summit in Astana. The Russian president declared that if Armenia adopted EU standards, Moscow would dismantle all economic integration with Yerevan, and Armenian citizens would be required to obtain work permits to be employed in Russia. Putin also recalled that Ukraine’s attempt to draw closer to the EU had in its time led to a “crisis.”
The Armenian Diaspora as an Electoral Instrument
According to Reuters, the Kremlin reportedly discussed a plan to send up to 100,000 Armenians living in Russia to vote in Armenia against Pashinyan. At the same time, the Kremlin launched a large-scale information campaign: according to researchers, networks of fake accounts spent two months spreading narratives that Pashinyan was “preparing for war against Russia.” Moscow has also demanded that pro-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, currently under house arrest in Armenia, be allowed to participate in the elections.
What’s next?
The June 7 elections will show how effective Moscow’s pressure has proved to be. Polls currently show a stable approval rating for Pashinyan, and according to local research, a majority of Armenian citizens support the course toward closer ties with the EU.
