Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia is preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland to pressure NATO into abandoning its support for Ukraine. A full-scale invasion, however, remains unlikely in the near term: according to Riga, Moscow would need three to five years to rebuild its military capabilities.
“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland, not a conventional war, because Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems,” Latvian intelligence told Fox News on June 22.
The agency’s chief concern is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is receiving distorted assessments from within his own system, which, in the words of Latvian intelligence, “can lead to foolish and senseless decisions.”
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) had earlier released a report stating that Russia has prepared a complaint against the Baltic states at the U.N.’s International Court of Justice, formally accusing them of discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers. Latvian intelligence believes that, through this legal campaign, Moscow is trying to build a narrative it could later use to justify action against the Baltic states.
The bureau also noted that in late May Putin signed a law giving him the right to use the armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad. The Federation Council had already granted the president that power once before, immediately ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Even so, intelligence sees no direct military threat to Latvia. “Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia. We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks,” the agency added.
The Russian government did not respond to Fox News’s request for comment.
Polish officials had previously said Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank, carrying out assassinations, launching drones, conducting cyberattacks, staging attacks on critical infrastructure, and weaponizing illegal migration against NATO countries.
