The American intelligence community has prepared a report stating that over the thirty-eight days of the American-Israeli war against Iran, China managed to gain a strategic advantage across several key dimensions: military, economic, and diplomatic. The document was delivered this week to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.
The central argument of the report is that while Washington was absorbed in military operations in the Middle East, Beijing was actively selling weapons to American allies in the Persian Gulf and helping countries around the world cope with the energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China was thus simultaneously strengthening its own position while undermining Washington’s reputation as a reliable partner.
The military-strategic dimension is no less alarming. According to analysts, the conflict with Iran allowed Chinese military planners to study in detail the combat methods of American armed forces, from logistics to the tactics of deploying aviation and precision weapons. This experience will in all likelihood be factored into the planning of possible future operations. Which ones exactly is not specified in the report, but it is clear that Taiwan is what is meant. American forces have depleted stockpiles of ammunition that, under different circumstances, could have proven critical precisely in a Taiwan scenario.
Washington’s official reaction was one of disagreement. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called “false” the claims that the global balance of power had shifted against the United States. The White House, for its part, emphasized the military successes of the campaign. Beijing, meanwhile, reaffirmed its commitment to peace and called for preventing a resumption of hostilities.
It is telling that the report was prepared on the eve of President Trump’s talks with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14. During the meeting, the Chinese leader warned that the Taiwan issue could lead to “clashes and even conflicts” between the two powers. This statement came against the backdrop of persistent forecasts that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan could become a reality as early as 2027.
