Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev sent a letter to the Armenian government on May 25 with an unambiguous warning: if Yerevan continues its pursuit of European Union membership, Moscow could suspend or unilaterally terminate the agreement on duty-free supplies of natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds. This was reported by Kommersant, which obtained a copy of the letter.
The agreement was signed in 2013, when Russia indefinitely abolished export duties on these goods for Armenia. If the deal is terminated, Armenia would be required to pay compensation or have the outstanding amounts recognized as state debt to Russia. The consequences of a rupture could be severe for Yerevan: the country receives from Russia 85% of all the gas it consumes, at least 62% of its petroleum products, and half of all imported diamonds. Analysts believe that replacing these volumes in the short term would be extremely difficult.
Armenia has been steadily moving closer to the West in recent years. In 2025, the country’s parliament passed a law initiating the EU accession process, and Yerevan expects to introduce a visa-free regime with the European Union within two years. This pivot is largely a consequence of the Karabakh crisis: Russia effectively refused to support Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, which deeply undermined Yerevan’s trust in Moscow as an ally.
The current pressure has a distinctly pre-election character. On June 7, Armenia holds parliamentary elections, and the Kremlin is clearly seeking to weaken the position of incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Alongside diplomatic threats, Russia is imposing trade restrictions on Armenian flowers, mineral water and brandy, while pro-Kremlin Telegram channels are running a campaign claiming that Pashinyan is “preparing for war with Russia.”
