The truce between the United States and Iran is on the verge of collapse. Less than twenty-four hours remain before the ceasefire expires, yet no lasting agreement is in sight. The Strait of Hormuz is once again closed, military incidents are ongoing, and the future of negotiations remains uncertain.
The escalation began with the seizure of the Iranian container ship Touska. U.S. forces struck the vessel, which was en route from China to Bandar Abbas, before Marines boarded it. In Tehran, the move was described as a violation of the truce and an act of piracy. In response, Iranian forces launched drone attacks on several U.S. military ships. In effect, both sides have crossed the boundaries of the ceasefire without formally declaring its end.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated rapidly. On April 17, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the passage to commercial vessels, only to shut it again the following day. Tehran explicitly linked the move to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports imposed on April 12, stating that free navigation would not be allowed as long as these restrictions remain in place. Shortly afterward, several vessels attempting to transit the strait came under fire.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. According to tracking data, only a handful of ships have passed through in recent hours, compared to more than twenty per day just days earlier. These flows include oil, liquefied natural gas, and other strategic cargoes on which global markets directly depend.
Against this backdrop, Washington is trying to keep the diplomatic track alive. Donald Trump said a U.S. delegation would travel to Islamabad to continue talks with Iran. According to him, “the concept of the deal is already agreed,” and there is a real chance of finalizing it. At the same time, U.S. rhetoric remains hardline: in the event of failed negotiations, Trump has threatened to destroy key Iranian infrastructure.
Tehran, for its part, has not confirmed its participation in the talks. According to Iranian media, the authorities do not intend to send a delegation to Pakistan as long as the U.S. naval blockade continues. Among the main grievances cited are Washington’s “excessive demands,” contradictory statements, and ongoing threats. Iranian officials also do not rule out that negotiations could serve as a cover for increased pressure or even a military operation.
Despite the uncertainty, Islamabad continues preparations for a second round of talks. It could be the last opportunity to extend the truce, which is set to expire on April 21. However, given the current level of mistrust, the risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains high.
Markets are already reacting. Oil prices have risen by around 5%, recovering part of the recent drop triggered by the brief reopening of the strait. Volatility has also increased across financial markets, as traders price in the risk of further escalation.
