At the beginning of 2026, Cuba was plunged into a large-scale energy collapse. After the United States effectively blocked oil shipments from Venezuela, the country lost its main source of energy. For several months now, millions of Cubans have been living with constant power outages, fuel shortages, and a lack of basic food supplies. In cities, transport has come to a standstill, hospitals are only treating the most critical cases, and many businesses have shut down. Le Monde Vu d’Ailleurs looks at how Cuba ended up in this situation and what may come next.
The standoff between the United States and Cuba has lasted more than 60 years but it has now entered a new phase
The conflict between the United States and Cuba dates back to 1959, when Fidel Castro came to power and the island became an ally of the Soviet Union. As early as 1960, Washington imposed a trade embargo, which has been repeatedly tightened ever since.
Despite leadership changes in recent years, Cuba’s political system has remained unchanged. For the United States, it is still a communist state located just 180 kilometers from Florida. For decades, Washington has viewed Cuba as a potential platform for its geopolitical rivals — first the USSR, and today Russia and China. As a result, the Cuban question has always been both economic and strategic.
A new cycle of tensions began during Donald Trump’s first presidency, when the United States abandoned the normalization policy initiated under Barack Obama and reinstated strict restrictions.
In 2026, the United States targeted Cuba’s most vulnerable point: energy
The turning point came in January 2026. After the Venezuelan oil sector came under de facto U.S. control, Washington gained the ability to cut off Cuba’s main fuel supply channel.
On January 11, Donald Trump announced a complete halt to Venezuelan oil deliveries. On January 29, the United States threatened sanctions against any country attempting to supply Cuba with energy resources. The Trump administration has explicitly stated that its goal is to force political change on the island. According to U.S. media reports, it is also a matter of personal legacy for Trump to go down in history as the president who “solved the Cuban issue.”
Cuba plunged into darkness: blackouts, shortages, and transport collapse
The consequences of this energy pressure have been immediate and severe. In Havana, power outages reach up to 18 hours a day, while in some regions they are nearly continuous. Residents are forced to cook with wood and charcoal due to the lack of gas and fuel. Public transport has effectively stopped: buses no longer run, and taxis have nearly disappeared. To get around, people wait for hours or walk long distances.
The food supply system has been severely disrupted. Without electricity, it is impossible to store products, leading many suppliers to halt deliveries. As a result, people are often left with only basic food items, primarily rice.
Hospitals are treating only life-threatening cases, while pharmacies lack even essential medicines. Cities are deteriorating: garbage is no longer collected due to fuel shortages, and sanitary conditions are worsening.
A paralyzed economy, collapsed tourism, and a population considering emigration
The crisis has brought the country’s economy to a near standstill. Many businesses have closed due to the lack of energy. Tourism, a key sector, has collapsed, with airlines suspending flights and foreign visitors leaving the island en masse. Incomes are disappearing, and those still earning money are spending most of it on food. Increasingly, Cubans are considering emigration as their only way out. Meanwhile, the black market is expanding rapidly: fuel, medicines, and basic goods are available only at sharply inflated prices.
Washington increases pressure. Havana makes its first concessions
Under mounting pressure, Cuban authorities have announced their willingness to open the economy, including allowing foreign investment and permitting expatriates to own businesses on the island. Negotiations with the United States have begun. However, according to Western media, Washington has hardened its stance and is now demanding not just concessions, but a change in leadership. Donald Trump has stated that he can “do whatever he wants” with Cuba and has even suggested the possibility of a “friendly takeover.”
What comes next
Several scenarios remain possible. If Cuba agrees to major concessions, some pressure could be lifted. However, if negotiations fail, the country risks sliding into an even deeper crisis, potentially leading to a humanitarian catastrophe and political destabilization.
