The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has almost completely overshadowed another conflict that erupted in Asia at the end of February. It concerns the confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan. On February 27, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, declared that his country was entering an “open war” against the Taliban movement, which has governed Afghanistan since 2021. Since then, clashes have continued along the border between the two countries, while Pakistan’s air force has carried out regular strikes on Afghan territory. Understanding this conflict is not simple: it combines long-standing territorial disputes, the fight against militant groups, and internal tensions within the Taliban movement itself.
What happened?
On the evening of February 21, the Pakistani air force struck the Afghan provinces of Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost. Pakistani authorities said the attacks targeted camps of terrorist groups active in the region, particularly Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), often called the “Pakistani Taliban,” as well as fighters from the Islamic State – Khorasan Province.
According to Islamabad, the strikes were a response to a series of attacks inside Pakistan, including in the capital Islamabad as well as in the districts of Bajaur and Bannu in the country’s northwest.
The Afghan government said the bombings killed at least 18 people, including women and children. Since those strikes, regular clashes have taken place along the border.
On the night of February 27, Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid announced that Afghan forces had attacked Pakistani posts along the frontier. According to sources cited by Al Jazeera, around ten Pakistani soldiers were killed and several border positions were captured by Taliban fighters.
How many people have been killed?
Official figures differ significantly depending on the source. According to the spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense, Inayatullah Khwarizmi, by early March the fighting had killed 28 Afghan soldiers and around 150 Pakistani troops. Pakistani authorities acknowledge similar losses on their side but claim that Afghan forces have suffered more than 450 fatalities. The United Nations mission in Afghanistan confirms that civilians have already been affected by the conflict. According to the organization, at least 56 civilians had been killed as of March 6, including 24 children and six women.
Why are these two countries in conflict?
Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan date back almost to the creation of Pakistan itself. The main source of dispute is the Durand Line, the border drawn in the late nineteenth century by the British administration during the Anglo-Afghan wars. It divided territories traditionally inhabited by the Pashtuns, one of the region’s largest ethnic groups.
Afghanistan has never fully recognized this border. Afghan authorities have long argued that it was imposed by colonial Britain and should be renegotiated. The idea of creating an independent state called Pashtunistan, uniting Pashtun regions of both Pakistan and Afghanistan, has fueled tensions between the two countries for decades. As a result, the Durand Line has frequently been the scene of clashes—first between armed groups supported by each side, and later between the two states’ own forces.
What has changed in recent years?
A new phase of tensions began after the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Initially, Pakistan welcomed the development. The country’s then Prime Minister Imran Khan even said that Afghans had “broken the chains of slavery.” But relations soon deteriorated.
The main reason was the rise in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. Islamabad blames Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, a radical organization that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish a strict interpretation of Islamic law in the country.
Although the group is formally separate from the Afghan Taliban, the two movements maintain close ties. Pakistan claims that militants use Afghan territory as a rear base and receive support from Taliban authorities.
According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, the TTP carried out around 300 attacks in Pakistan in 2025 alone, killing more than 440 people.
What are the objectives of the two sides?
Pakistan says its main goal is to destroy the infrastructure of the TTP and stop terrorist attacks on its territory. According to Musharraf Zaidi, a representative of the Pakistani government, Islamabad sees no possibility of dialogue as long as Afghanistan continues to support these militant groups.
For the Afghan authorities, the priority is to repel Pakistani strikes and defend the country’s sovereignty. However, Kabul does not appear ready to sever ties with the Pakistani Taliban, which remain ideologically close to the movement ruling Afghanistan. This makes any compromise extremely difficult.
Who has the military advantage?
Most military analysts believe the advantage lies with Pakistan. According to the Global Firepower ranking, Pakistan is the 14th most powerful military in the world, while Afghanistan ranks 121st. Pakistan’s armed and paramilitary forces number around 1.1 million personnel, compared with roughly 165,000 for Afghanistan. However, the Taliban have an important advantage: their experience in guerrilla warfare. In addition, after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2021, a large amount of American military equipment remained in Afghanistan.
How could the conflict end?
Most experts believe that neither side will achieve a quick victory. The conflict will likely follow a pattern already familiar in the region: after a period of fighting, the two sides may attempt negotiations through mediators such as Turkey, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia. But even if a temporary ceasefire is reached, tensions along the border are likely to persist. The most probable outcome is therefore a prolonged low-intensity conflict marked by sporadic clashes that could continue for many years.
