On the fourth day of the new large-scale war, Tehran’s strategy has become clear: instead of pursuing direct symmetrical escalation against the United States and Israel, Iran is attempting to plunge the region into controlled energy chaos. The strikes are targeting civilian infrastructure in third countries — primarily the oil and gas monarchies of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, explicit threats are being issued against tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil: Heading Toward $100?
On March 3, May Brent futures climbed to $85 per barrel, nearly 10% above March 2 levels. During the first trading session after the outbreak of war, prices had already jumped from $73 to nearly $80.
The latest surge was triggered by a statement from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz: any vessel attempting to cross it could be targeted. No formal evidence of mining has been confirmed, but on the morning of March 3, no tankers were present in the strait, while hundreds of vessels were accumulating at its entrances.
According to Bloomberg Economics, a short-term blockade could push Brent up to $108 per barrel. JPMorgan had previously suggested a $120–130 range in the event of a prolonged closure. The key variable remains the duration of the active threat phase.
An additional risk comes from direct strikes on infrastructure. On March 2, Saudi Aramco preemptively shut down a refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day and began redirecting part of its exports through alternative routes, including pipelines to the Red Sea. If the threat to shipping is not lifted in the coming weeks, major producers could face storage constraints and be forced to cut output — further intensifying upward price pressure.
Gas: An Even Stronger Shock Than Oil
For the gas market, the crisis has been even more severe. Up to 20% of global seaborne LNG exports pass through Hormuz. More critically, attacks on Qatar’s infrastructure, the world’s leading producer of liquefied natural gas, have deeply shaken the market.
On March 2, Qatar confirmed two Iranian drone strikes: facilities in Mesaieed were hit, as well as the Ras Laffan terminal, the world’s largest LNG hub, with a capacity of 77 million tons per year (nearly one-fifth of global supply).
Futures at Europe’s TTF gas hub surged by nearly 50% in a single day, reaching €46–47 per MWh. The market has not seen such moves since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
According to Goldman Sachs, if tanker transit through Hormuz is not secured within a month, gas prices in Europe could rise by 130%. If the crisis lasts two months, prices would exceed €100 per MWh. After cutting pipeline gas supplies from Russia, the EU became more dependent on LNG. Storage levels in several countries remain below target. Higher import costs would mean renewed inflationary pressure and a risk of economic slowdown.
Can Iran Really Close Hormuz?
Iran has already attacked at least three civilian vessels. At the same time, U.S. command claims to have neutralized Iranian naval assets in the Gulf of Oman. However, Tehran is relying on asymmetric tactics: drones, short-range missiles, and targeted strikes against ships and infrastructure.
According to several experts, Iran would be capable of imposing a short-term blockade. Moreover, a lower-cost “war of attrition”, based on persistent threats and intermittent attacks, could be sustained for months. That is why drone and missile production facilities have become priority targets for the United States and Israel. If those strikes fail to achieve their objectives, maritime traffic may only resume under military escort.
