On September 12, joint Russian-Belarusian exercises Zapad 2025 begin in Belarus. They are the first such exercises on this scale since the 2021–2022, when a series of military exercises have been followed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Unlike Zapad 2021, which included around 200,000 militaries, the current exercises will be much smaller. Lithuanian military intelligence approximates around 30,000 participants, but only 8,000 of whom are concentrated in Belarus. The main activities will take place in the Minsk region, far from the direct border with NATO, but part of the manoeuvres will take place near the borders of Poland and Lithuania, where two new fortified areas have been built.
The scenario of the exercises has not been officially disclosed. The Russian side traditionally claims to be preparing to ‘repel aggression.’ However, experts point out that it was during Zapad 2021 that the tactics used at the beginning of the war against Ukraine were practised. In 2025, particular attention is being paid to planning the use of tactical nuclear weapons and new Oreshnik medium-range missiles. No live firing is expected, but decision-making processes regarding the movement and possible use of ammunition will be simulated. This is the first such scenario since the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023 and the signing of a ‘nuclear security guarantee’ agreement between Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin in December 2024.
In parallel with Zapad 2025, large-scale NATO TARASSIS exercises are being held in the region with the participation of 11 countries, from the United Kingdom and Norway to new alliance members Sweden and Finland. In addition, Poland and Lithuania are conducting their own manoeuvres. More than 30,000 Polish troops are on the Belarusian border. NATO is particularly concentrating on defending the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow, about 100-kilometre stretch of land between Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast. It is the only piece of land that unites the Baltic nations with the rest of the bloc and, in the event of war, will be a point of concentration.
The situation was further exacerbated by an incident on the night of 10 September, when dozens of Russian drones flew into Polish territory. Although NATO called it ‘a mistake, not an attack,’ Warsaw, Latvia and Lithuania have stepped up security measures: Latvia and Lithuania have closed their airspace over their eastern borders, and Poland has completely closed its border with Belarus.
