The United States is deploying aircraft carriers, reinforcing its bases in the Persian Gulf, and hardening its public rhetoric. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program are officially ongoing, yet direct threats are being voiced in parallel. More and more analysts believe the conflict could expand and last for months.
Washington has sent to the region a carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, the most advanced ship in the U.S. Navy. It is expected to join the group centered on the USS Abraham Lincoln, already positioned at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. At the same time, U.S. bases in Qatar and Bahrain are being reinforced with aircraft, air defense systems, and munitions.
All of this comes as a new round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program is underway. Washington is demanding a complete halt to uranium enrichment on Iranian territory, as well as limits on the country’s ballistic missile program. Tehran says it is prepared to discuss certain nuclear restrictions but категорically refuses to abandon its missile program or its support for regional allies.
Why Many Believe a Strike Is Plausible
Much of this perception stems from the political style of Donald Trump. His strategy relies on public pressure, short deadlines, and high-profile moves. The deployment of aircraft carriers sends a clear message: concessions must be swift and substantial.
A second factor is the logic of the negotiations themselves. Iran has traditionally pursued a strategy of delay, seeking to buy time and wait for more favorable international conditions. In the current environment, however, the White House may interpret this tactic as deliberate obstruction.
Finally, the Israeli factor is central. After the 2025 war, Israeli authorities view Iran’s ballistic missile program as a direct and structural threat. The destruction of the relevant infrastructure has long been discussed at the highest strategic levels.
If the United States Strikes, What Scenario Is Likely?
Most analysts consider a ground invasion unlikely. A full-scale occupation of Iran would require enormous resources and carry major political risks.
A more probable scenario would involve a series of targeted airstrikes against nuclear facilities, ballistic missile infrastructure, air defense systems, and command centers. Such an operation would aim to rapidly shift the balance of power and strengthen Washington’s negotiating position.
However, even a limited strike would almost inevitably provoke retaliation. Iran could mobilize its allies in Lebanon and Yemen, strike U.S. bases in the region, or intensify pressure on Israel. Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would immediately affect global oil prices and the broader world economy.
