In the new geopolitical realities that have occurred since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, the US continues to spread its influence throughout the world, including by redirecting the economic priorities of its allies. One of the most suggestive examples is the Washington-Brussels agreement, which is in fact a fundamental transformation of the trade and energy priorities of the European Union.
Under the latest agreements, the EU has agreed to impose 15% duties on its exports to the US, while US goods will be supplied to the EU on a duty-free basis. This creates a clear competitive advantage for US producers while putting European exporters in a less favourable position, worsening the terms of trade, and weakening their own exports.
Furthermore, the EU is abandoning Russian energy resources (primarily gas and oil) and increasing its supplies from the US. These are more expensive and logistically more complicated supplies, but Brussels considers them to be a strategic choice under conditions of geopolitical tensions and energy diversification aspirations. As a result, a new dependence is being formed, not on an eastern but on a western supplier.
Special attention should be paid to the European Union’s plans to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars worth of American arms. Combined with the initiatives on direct investments of European funds in the US economy (about 600 billion dollars), a picture of a profound redistribution of resources and priorities in transatlantic relations is emerging.
From the point of view of macroeconomics and strategic balance, the U.S. position is significantly strengthening. And if we consider the situation in the context of the question ‘who benefits from the current restructuring of the world system after the outbreak of war in Ukraine?’, then it is the US, according to a combination of factors, that looks like the most advantageous party. Their geo-economic position, according to key indicators, has improved compared to the pre-February 2022 period.
For other actors in the international system, the situation is mixed. The European Union is facing higher energy costs, weakening industry and growing external dependence. Russia is adapting to the sanctions regime but faces restricted access to markets and technology. China is operating under increased pressure and competition amid trade restrictions and political risks. The countries of the Global South remain observers for now. However, the United States seems to be the key beneficiary in both economic and strategic dimensions.
