On April 12, parliamentary elections will take place in Hungary. Viktor Orbán, for the first time in sixteen years, risks losing power. However, even if his party is defeated, a sharp shift in the country’s political course is unlikely in the coming years.
According to recent polls, the ruling party, Fidesz, is trailing behind the opposition party Tisza, led by Péter Magyar. Nevertheless, Orbán remains one of Europe’s most experienced leaders and retains a wide range of tools to stay in power, from media control to structural advantages within the electoral system.
How Fidesz has stayed in power for so long
After winning the 2010 elections, Orbán’s party secured a constitutional majority. In 2011, it introduced electoral reforms that strengthened single-member districts and effectively entrenched Fidesz’s advantage in future elections. In practice, this meant that even with declining support, the party continued to secure a disproportionate number of seats. In 2014, for instance, Fidesz received fewer votes than in 2010 but still retained a two-thirds majority in parliament. The same pattern was repeated in 2018 and 2022.
Another key factor has been its work with the electorate. The party’s core support base consists of rural populations, small-town residents, and older voters, groups particularly receptive to messaging centered on national sovereignty and traditional values.
Ethnic Hungarians living abroad also play a significant role. After the government simplified the naturalization process, hundreds of thousands gained voting rights. Most of them support Fidesz, giving the party a meaningful advantage. In addition, authorities have relied on more controversial practices, such as so-called “electoral tourism,” which mobilizes voters in strategically important districts, as well as material incentives for voters in poorer regions.
Media control has become another pillar of the system. After 2010, state advertising was almost entirely redirected to pro-government outlets. In 2018, the media conglomerate KESMA was created, uniting hundreds of publications. Today, a large share of the media landscape is under government influence.
Reasons for growing discontent
Despite the system’s apparent stability, dissatisfaction within society is increasing. Young people and residents of major cities are particularly critical of the government.
One major factor is the economic situation. Growth is slowing, the budget deficit is rising, and public debt remains high. Tensions with the European Union have added further pressure, resulting in the freezing of substantial financial funds.
Corruption remains another central issue. The case of businessman Lőrinc Mészáros, whose wealth surged after Orbán came to power, has become emblematic. The opposition sees this as evidence of a system built on patronage and unequal access to resources.
Why the opposition now has a chance
In previous elections, the opposition’s main weakness was fragmentation. That situation has changed in recent years, particularly with the emergence of Péter Magyar. A former Orbán ally, he has managed to quickly consolidate protest voters and offer a more pragmatic platform. His party, Tisza, focuses on anti-corruption efforts, restoring relations with the European Union, and institutional reform. At the same time, Magyar avoids strong ideological positioning and, on some issues, adopts views close to Fidesz—particularly on migration and caution regarding military support for Ukraine. This allows him to attract part of the conservative electorate.
Russia and Ukraine at the center of the campaign
Relations with Russia and the war in Ukraine have become central campaign issues. The opposition accuses the government of excessive closeness to Moscow, pointing to contacts between Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Sergey Lavrov, as well as Orbán’s dialogue with Vladimir Putin.
In response, the government has built its campaign around the idea of security. Orbán presents himself as a leader capable of keeping the country out of war and maintaining stability. Within this narrative, an opposition victory is framed as a risk of destabilization. In pro-government messaging, Volodymyr Zelensky is frequently portrayed as a symbol of that threat.
Who will win and what comes next
The outcome of the election will largely depend on undecided voters, who still make up a significant share of the electorate. However, even a victory for Tisza would not guarantee rapid change. The political system built during Orbán’s years in power remains resilient. Key institutions, including the judiciary and oversight bodies, are still largely controlled by his allies. Media influence also remains intact. Moreover, any new government would face serious economic constraints. Without support from the European Union, implementing reforms will be difficult, and those reforms could be blocked by the opposition.
