The main theater of the large-scale war in the Middle East today lies between Iran and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The second front, in terms of importance, is Lebanon. Israel has entered a new phase of its war against Hezbollah and this time the probability that the organization could be definitively defeated is higher than ever.
Hezbollah is at the same time a major Lebanese political force, an armed organization whose capabilities are at least comparable to those of the Lebanese army, and a terrorist organization whose main objective is the fight against Israel. Created in the 1980s with the direct involvement of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, it has for decades remained one of the main instruments of Tehran’s foreign policy. Iran arms Hezbollah, finances it, trains its fighters and provides intelligence support.
For the Islamic Republic, Hezbollah long served as a central element of its regional deterrence system. If Israel were to attack Iran directly, Hezbollah would open a second front and launch massive rocket bombardments against Israeli territory. The organization has never been able to defeat Israel in a conventional war, but it could inflict serious economic and political damage. That risk was supposed to deter Israel from a direct confrontation with Tehran.
However, Hezbollah also has its own political interests and ambitions inside Lebanon. The country’s political system is built on a confessional balance: the president is always Christian, the prime minister Sunni and the speaker of parliament Shiite. The population is divided almost evenly between these communities, and politics inevitably takes on a sectarian character.
Shiites were long considered one of the most marginalized groups in the country, and Hezbollah became the most influential force representing their interests. In addition to its armed wing, the movement has a political party “Loyalty to the Resistance”, which holds 14 of the 128 seats in parliament and remains one of the major factions.
Political instability in Lebanon reached its peak between 2022 and 2025. For almost two and a half years the country lived without a president: parliament could not elect a head of state because of deep political divisions. Without a president it was impossible to form a government. Hezbollah was not the only cause of this crisis, but it actively prevented its resolution, seeking to avoid the election of a candidate fundamentally hostile to it.
In this context, on October 7, 2023, Hamas militants attacked Israel. The very next day Hezbollah began shelling northern Israel. Israel responded with artillery fire and air strikes, but for nearly a year the conflict remained relatively limited.
The turning point came in the autumn of 2024. Israeli intelligence services carried out an operation in which pagers and radios used by Hezbollah fighters were detonated. This was followed by massive airstrikes against the group’s positions in southern Lebanon, in the Bekaa Valley and in Dahieh, the Shiite suburb of Beirut that is de facto controlled by Hezbollah.
Within a few days a large part of the movement’s leadership was eliminated, including its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successors. The Israeli army then entered southern Lebanon and for several weeks destroyed weapons depots, infrastructure and militant bases. When the troops withdrew, an agreement was concluded that effectively granted Israel freedom of action: if Hezbollah again posed a threat, Israeli aviation could strike Lebanese territory.
These events had major consequences for the entire region. Hezbollah had been one of the main military supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Weakened by the war with Israel, it could no longer provide the same support and in December 2024 the Syrian armed opposition quickly overthrew the dictator.
Inside Lebanon the political balance also shifted. The weakening of Hezbollah forced it to make political concessions. Parliament finally managed to elect a president, the commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army, Joseph Aoun. He appointed Nawaf Salam, former president of the International Court of Justice, as prime minister.
Lebanon does not officially recognize Israel, but the new authorities soon began to establish working relations with the Jewish state. In practice the two sides became situational allies. Their interests converged: Israel wanted to eliminate the threat on its northern border, while the Lebanese government sought to rid itself of Iranian influence and regain control over the entire territory of the country.
Since the autumn of 2024, the Lebanese army has gradually advanced into the south of the country, taking control of Hezbollah positions: bunkers, tunnels, weapons depots and sometimes entire villages. Most of the time this happened without fighting, thanks to agreements between local commanders. When Hezbollah fighters resisted, Israeli aviation intervened. The Lebanese army tried to avoid direct clashes, as it was not certain it could defeat Hezbollah.
Despite this cooperation, Israel remained dissatisfied with the pace of Hezbollah’s disarmament. Israeli intelligence repeatedly concluded that the organization was replenishing its weapons stocks and recruiting new fighters faster than it was disarming.
In the context of preparations for the US-Israeli operation against Iran, this issue became particularly sensitive. Although Hezbollah no longer represented the threat it did in 2023–2024, it remained the second source of risk for Israel after Iranian missiles.
In February Israel carried out several airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley, destroying part of its weapons depots and killing several commanders. On February 24 Israel sent a warning to the Lebanese government: if a war with Iran begins and Hezbollah joins it, Israeli aviation has a list of more than a thousand targets, including Beirut’s international airport. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly called on Hezbollah “not to drag Lebanon into a new adventure.”
The war between the United States, Israel and Iran began on February 28. One of its first victims was the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei. On the night of March 2, after official confirmation of his death, Hezbollah began launching rockets against Israel.
Israel responded with massive airstrikes against southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and Dahieh. The targets included leaders of the movement, Iranian representatives in Lebanon and Hezbollah infrastructure, including the headquarters of the Al-Manar television channel. The Israeli army also carried out several limited ground raids in southern Lebanon. For now, there is no full-scale ground operation, but such a scenario remains possible.
Israel is calling on civilians to evacuate southern Lebanon and the Beirut districts controlled by Hezbollah. According to Lebanese authorities, several dozen people have already been killed, hundreds wounded, and around 80,000 residents have been forced to leave their homes.
The Lebanese government condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of its sovereignty and asked for support from the United Nations and the United States. At the same time, however, it announced a ban on Hezbollah’s “security and military activities.”
