China’s northeastern and eastern provinces are experiencing not just a demographic crisis, but a true collapse. Statistics show a rapid decline in birth rates, mass migration and accelerated ageing of society. This phenomenon has already taken on a scale comparable to, and perhaps even exceeding, the demographic problems of South Korea, a country that has long been regarded as an example of low birth rates in Asia.
The demographic decline is particularly acute in China’s northern provinces, including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning. Here, amid a harsh climate and job losses, people are increasingly leaving their homelands in search of a more comfortable life in the south in Guangdong, Zhejiang and other economically developed regions with mild climates. These internal migration flows are exacerbating the devastation of the northeast, which was once the centre of heavy industry and urbanisation during the Mao Zedong era. As a result, much of the area is depopulated. Abandoned villages, half-empty towns and shortages of able-bodied people are becoming the new norm. This has serious consequences, from economic stagnation to the threat of strategic vulnerability.
Social anthropologist Alice Evans points to underlying cultural reasons for this phenomenon. In East Asian countries – China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan – there is a cult of success, achievement and competition. For decades, these attitudes dictated men’s behaviour, but with women’s empowerment and access to education, women have become actively involved in this race for success. As a result, family and childbearing are increasingly on the back burner. Women put off marriage and childbearing, and when combined with the high costs of education and housing, and the overload of children in the school system, fertility falls to historic lows.
The demographic collapse has not only a social but also a serious geopolitical dimension. Population decline in key provinces could weaken the domestic market, reduce the manufacturing base and slow GDP growth. In addition, China risks losing its strategic advantage of a large and cheap labour force, a factor that has driven the economy for decades.
China’s emptying northern regions could become a ‘vacuum’ into which new challenges will creep in: loss of control over border areas, increased social instability, and a decline in the effectiveness of local governance.
The Chinese leadership is already trying to stimulate the birth rate – abolishing the one-child policy, tax incentives, favourable mortgages for families, subsidies. But in conditions when young people do not see the sense in the traditional family model, economic measures alone are clearly insufficient.
