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Israel After the US–Iran Ceasefire, What Do They Really Think?

The United States and Iran have agreed on a memorandum of understanding intended to end the new war in the Middle East. Its official signing is expected on June 19 in Geneva. The document provides for a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The full text of the agreement has not yet been published.

According to CNN, the agreement contains no requirement for Israeli troops to withdraw from Lebanon, even though Israel took part in the strikes on Iran alongside the United States. Shortly after the deal between Washington and Tehran was announced, Israeli authorities said they did not consider themselves a party to it. At home, the prime minister is already facing criticism from the opposition, while anonymous officials are calling the agreement a failure for Israel.

Speaking at a press conference on the evening of June 15, Benjamin Netanyahu sought to distance himself from the terms of the deal without entering into open conflict with Washington. As CNN notes, the prime minister avoided directly discussing the US–Iran agreement in his remarks. Netanyahu insisted that “with or without an agreement, Iran will not have nuclear weapons — not today, not tomorrow.” “As long as I am prime minister of Israel, this will not happen,” he stressed. According to Netanyahu, “the fight is not over,” and Israel “must remain vigilant, strong, and ready to defend itself if necessary.” He made clear that the country had no intention of leaving southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, or Syria. At the same time, the prime minister acknowledged that the content of the deal between Washington and Tehran remained unclear to Israel.

The central message of his address was framed in terms of military victory. According to Netanyahu, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear scientists, eliminated the leaders of the “terrorist regime,” destroyed nuclear facilities, missiles, and most of the plants that produce them, as well as military-industry sites, and Iran’s navy and air force.

Netanyahu also rejected claims that one of the war’s objectives, regime change in Iran, had not been achieved. The goals, he said, were different: to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear and missile threat and to create the conditions under which the Iranian people themselves could change the country’s political system.

One opposition leader, former prime minister Yair Lapid, called the US–Iran agreement a “diplomatic failure” on Netanyahu’s part, saying he “failed to achieve a result” even though the military had completed its tasks. In Lapid’s view, Israel finds itself in a position where it must choose between its right to self-defense and confrontation with its main ally — Washington.

Three sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity consider it likely that the 60-day ceasefire will be extended to 90 days, with the United States maintaining its military presence in the region during negotiations with Tehran. Two others noted that Israel had been caught off guard when Trump announced last week that a deal with Iran was close; in their assessment, Israel failed to influence the course of the negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Energy Minister Eli Cohen said that if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear and missile capabilities, Israel would be ready to act on its own, though in his view Tehran is unlikely to risk this as long as Donald Trump remains US president. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, for his part, stressed that the agreement between Tehran and Washington in no way binds Israel.

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