The military escalation of recent days in the Persian Gulf and the de facto suspension of negotiations between Iran and the United States have ultimately had no critical impact on the global oil market. Brent is holding near $92, and US WTI around $89.5, even though, on June 1, Tehran cut off all exchange of messages with Washington through intermediaries, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz for good, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports is now entering its third month.
The paradox is explained by the fact that the market long ago “priced in” the worst-case scenario. Oil prices had already surged back in the spring, at the start of the blockade, before pulling back by double-digit percentages. Today, quotes are balancing between the geopolitical risk premium and the opposite pressure, a strong dollar and US inflation. In the end, a full-scale war in the Gulf is not yet priced in.
Gold, on the other hand, could slip below the $4,000-per-ounce mark. Since the start of the year, the metal has lost more than 20% from its all-time high of around $5,600, effectively wiping out its entire annual gain. May’s data confirms that physical gold funds recorded their first net capital outflow in five months.
Here, as with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the decisive factor has been the high-profile stock market debuts of America’s tech giants. On June 12, SpaceX carried out the largest IPO in history, raising nearly $75 billion at a valuation of almost $1.8 trillion. OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing their own listings next. Investors are pulling their money out of “safe-haven” assets, gold and crypto funds, hoping to cash in on the shares of these companies. On top of the fundamental drivers (the dollar, interest rates, profit-taking after the rally) comes a rotation of capital: money is flowing to where higher returns are promised.
