At the beginning of 2026, Iran is experiencing one of the deepest crises in its modern history. The economic blockade, compounded by growing diplomatic isolation, has triggered a wave of nationwide protests whose scale threatens the very stability of the regime.
Iran is one of the world’s major oil producers, and prices for “black gold” have already reacted to the unfolding events. What risks and opportunities do developments in Iran pose for the global economy?
Internal Collapse: Inflation and the Devaluation of the Rial
One of the main drivers of public anger is the sharp decline in purchasing power. After inflation reached 32.5% in 2024, consumer prices rose by 42.4% in 2025, and IMF forecasts for 2026 do not anticipate a decline below 40%. At the same time, the Iranian rial has fallen to a historic low on the open market, trading in early 2026 at around 1.45 million rials per US dollar.
The economic slowdown has forced many shop owners in Tehran to close their businesses, while mass protests continue to shake urban centers. The repression of these demonstrations has had international repercussions. After the United Nations reinstated a series of sanctions against Iran in September 2025, the European Union adopted new restrictive measures in January 2026 targeting 15 individuals and 6 legal entities involved in the crackdown.
In this context of domestic instability and international isolation, the future trajectory of the situation will largely depend on the authorities’ ability to stabilize the economy and ease social tensions.
Energy: An Oil Market Under Extreme Pressure
Iran remains a key player in the energy sector, but its exports are becoming increasingly unstable. Although China remains an important and reliable customer, Iran’s infrastructure is vulnerable. Strikes at the Shahran refinery in June 2025 highlighted the fragility of the country’s production system.
Any significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply transits—would constitute an immediate shock to global energy markets. Scenarios currently priced in by analysts point to oil trading sustainably above 90 dollars per barrel, with a clearly asymmetric risk skewed to the upside in the event of military escalation. The prospect of US action against Iran, even indirect, is not excluded by markets, as reflected in rising risk premiums and heightened volatility in energy-related assets.
While discussions in Washington about intercepting Iranian oil tankers and strengthening the US naval presence in the region suggest a strategy of gradual pressure rather than immediate confrontation, such an approach could nonetheless lead to an uncontrolled escalation capable of temporarily disrupting certain oil flows.
Against this backdrop, energy equities, oil ETFs and commodity markets are likely to experience increased volatility, as expectations of supply disruptions typically fuel short-term speculative movements.
Financial Market Reaction
Global financial markets are also experiencing significant turbulence amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran, compounded by concerns over a potential shutdown of the US government.
In early February, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.8%, the S&P 500 by more than 1.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.7%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks were particularly hard hit, with MSTR dropping by nearly 10% and COIN losing close to 5%.
So-called safe-haven assets showed a different dynamic than previously observed: after a period of gains, gold stabilized around 2,150 dollars per ounce—a level more consistent with market realities in 2026—while silver traded around 27 dollars per ounce, posting a modest decline following earlier spikes in volatility.
Regional Risks and Global Supply Chains
Iranian instability has far-reaching consequences beyond its borders. Neighboring countries such as Iraq—importing 10.5 billion dollars worth of Iranian goods—and Turkey—reliant on Iran for 15% of its gas supply—face serious risks of supply disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz and transport corridors toward Central Asia have become critical risk zones for global trade. Military tensions are forcing maritime and air carriers to undertake costly rerouting, while security warnings issued by the United States in February 2026 for vessels transiting along Iran’s coastline underscore the persistent threat to international logistics flows.
Outlook
Ultimately, the trajectory of this crisis will depend on political decisions taken in Tehran, Washington and other global capitals. Whether the coming months bring de-escalation or further confrontation, Iran’s situation will remain a key pressure point for energy markets, regional stability and international investors.
For investors, Iran’s outlook in 2026 thus appears both risky and potentially opportunity-rich. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty, combined with the prospect of heightened volatility across energy and equity markets, is driving up risk premiums and requires a cautious approach to asset allocation. At the same time, periods of geopolitical tension have historically supported commodity-linked assets and created opportunities for portfolio hedging. They may also offer attractive entry points into fundamentally undervalued assets during market corrections, provided investors adopt a long-term perspective and maintain rigorous risk management.
