The talks in Alaska have become the focus of media attention. However, behind the rhetoric and public statements lies a key fact: there is no systematic demand on a global scale for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.
The elites of Russia, Ukraine, Europe, China, India and the Global South are not interested in ending the conflict. A similar situation can be observed in the United States, where interest in peace initiatives among the political establishment is minimal. The only exception is Donald Trump’s personal will, motivated primarily by his desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize and demonstrate political superiority on par with Obama. Interestingly, if the Nobel Prize had been awarded for resolving another conflict, such as in the Gaza Strip, Trump’s attention to the Ukrainian issue would have significantly decreased.
The conflict in Ukraine has long ceased to be an obstacle for the elites. On the contrary, most participants derive certain economic, political or strategic benefits from it. That is why any negotiations in the current format are more often a symbolic demonstration of diplomatic activity than a real instrument of settlement.
It should be noted that Donald Trump and the MAGA leadership show limited interest in foreign policy. Their actions in this area are often dictated by internal political and lobbying pressures, whether it be the influence of Israeli groups on American politics or the positions of large technology corporations regarding China. The main goal of Trump and the MAGA movement is to transform the US domestic political system towards authoritarianism based on the soft European model. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman noted, this is about the ‘Orbanisation of America’ — named after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In this context, the MAGA leadership seeks to maintain power in the long term, ensuring economic benefits for the elite while exercising strict control over the courts, the media and universities, while preserving limited civil liberties sufficient for the functioning of a market economy.
We will only see a genuine peace process when there is real demand from at least the elites of a couple of key players, be it China and Europe or the MAGA leadership and the Ukrainian leadership. Without such agreement, international negotiations remain declarative and ineffective.
