Axios has published a draft peace agreement prepared by Donald Trump’s administration to resolve the war in Ukraine. The authenticity of the document has been confirmed by representatives of the Ukrainian and American authorities. A few days earlier, the text of the plan in Ukrainian was published by Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko.
According to the Financial Times, the White House has recently increased pressure on the Ukrainian leadership, hoping for a quick agreement on the document. According to the publication’s sources in Kyiv, Washington expects Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign the agreement before 27 November, Thanksgiving Day in the United States. At the same time, FT sources note that the deadlines set appear extremely tight and unrealistic.
On 20 November, Zelensky held a meeting with a delegation of high-ranking American military officials led by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. It was at this meeting that the peace plan was officially presented to the Ukrainian side. That same evening, Zelensky stated that Ukraine was interested in a ‘dignified peace’ and outlined Kyiv’s ‘principled positions.’ According to him, the parties agreed to continue working on the proposals without making any sharp public statements. On the same day, Ukraine’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Kristina Hayovyshyn, told a Security Council meeting that Kyiv had ‘red lines’ that remained ‘clear and unshakeable.’
Key provisions of the plan
The document includes 28 points and covers issues of territorial structure, security, Ukraine’s military potential, economic reconstruction and international guarantees.
Among the main provisions:
- Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk are recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States. The status of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is fixed along the current line of contact.
- Ukraine withdraws its troops from part of the Donetsk region, which becomes a neutral demilitarised zone, internationally recognised as Russian territory. Russian troops are not deployed in this zone.
- The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reduced to 600,000 personnel.
- Ukraine enshrines its refusal to join NATO in its Constitution. The Alliance, in turn, undertakes not to accept Ukraine in the future.
- Ukraine’s accession to the European Union is permitted.
- NATO does not deploy its troops on the territory of Ukraine. Alliance fighter jets are to be stationed in Poland.
- Frozen Russian assets worth $100 billion are directed towards the reconstruction of Ukraine. The US receives 50% of the profits from these investments. Europe contributes another $100 billion. The rest of the assets are invested in a joint American-Russian fund.
- It is proposed that sanctions against Russia be lifted in stages and that Russia itself be returned to the G8 format.
- Elections are to be held in Ukraine 100 days after the agreement is signed.
- All parties receive full amnesty for actions committed during the war.
- The ceasefire comes into force immediately after the document is agreed and troops are withdrawn to pre-agreed positions.
A separate section of the document is devoted to security issues. Ukraine is offered guarantees based on Article 5 of the NATO Charter — an attack on Ukraine will be considered a threat to the entire ‘transatlantic community,’ which implies the possibility of a collective response, including military action. These guarantees are valid for 10 years with the possibility of extension.
The plan also provides for:
- the restart of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant under IAEA control, with electricity distributed between Russia and Ukraine;
- ensuring freedom of navigation on the Dnieper River and grain exports through the Black Sea;
- a large-scale humanitarian programme with an ‘all for all’ exchange and the return of deported civilians, including children;
- the creation of joint US-Russian mechanisms to monitor the implementation of the agreement and the extension of key nuclear arms control treaties.
Reaction and possible alternatives
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainian side demanded that the wording of one of the clauses concerning the audit of international aid received during the war be changed. Instead of checking for possible cases of corruption, Kyiv insisted on a general wording about ‘full amnesty for actions during the conflict.’
In addition, the publication writes that a number of European countries may propose their own version of a peace plan with more favourable terms for Ukraine in the coming days. The details of this document have not yet been disclosed.
