Donald Trump’s return to the White House has profoundly reshaped the international landscape. One year after his inauguration, it has become clear that his aggressive rhetoric and the “America First” principle have not strengthened the position of the United States, but instead accelerated the global drift away from Washington. More and more states, from Asia to Africa and Latin America, are beginning to view China as a more predictable and advantageous partner. These are the conclusions of analysts from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, in their report “How Trump Makes China Great Again — and What It Means for Europe.” Their study, based on large-scale sociological surveys conducted in dozens of countries, highlights profound shifts in perceptions of global power centers.
China, the main beneficiary of the Trump era
The main geopolitical winner of Trump’s policies is Beijing. An increasing number of people around the world are convinced that in the coming years it will be China, not the United States, that becomes the dominant superpower.
The reasons are obvious. Washington’s aggressive foreign policy, its blatant disregard for international law and the pressure exerted even on its allies have pushed many countries closer to China. In this context, Beijing appears rational, pragmatic and focused on long-term partnerships. This trend is especially visible in the Global South. In Brazil, India and South Africa, the number of people who see China as an ally or at least as an indispensable partner continues to grow. Similar expectations are expressed in Russia and Turkey.
Technological superiority as the foundation of influence
One of the main reasons for the growing sympathy toward China lies in its technological leap. More than 60% of respondents in the EU believe that China will become the world leader in electric vehicle production. In the United States and Europe, there are also expectations that Beijing will dominate the renewable energy sector. This confidence reinforces Xi Jinping’s strategy, focused on exporting technology and infrastructure solutions. Unlike Western partners, China does not impose political conditions, which makes it particularly attractive to many countries accustomed to seeing economics tied to ideology.
The United States: from leader of the West to an “ordinary superpower”
Paradoxically, it was Trump himself who accelerated the transformation of the United States from the leader of the “Western world” into a solitary power acting exclusively in its own interests. In the EU, about 20% of respondents openly label the United States an enemy or adversary, and in some countries this figure approaches 30%. For Europe, this represents an unprecedented level of distrust toward Washington. Several provocative statements by the Trump administration served as catalysts. The most striking example was the speech by Vice President J. D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference, where he accused European countries of “abandoning fundamental values” and allowing uncontrolled immigration. For the EU, this was a clear signal: the United States no longer sees Europe as an equal partner.
Disillusionment in the Global South
As recently as 2024, Trump’s victory was welcomed in many Asian and African countries. In India, for example, 84% of the population believed his election would benefit their country. But by 2025, this figure had fallen to 53%.
In South Africa, the shift was even more radical: whereas the majority previously preferred the United States over China, the country is now clearly betting on Beijing. Similar changes are taking place in other African states.
Washington is no longer able to form global coalitions based on shared values. Under Trump, the United States stopped demanding that its partners choose between democracy and authoritarianism. While this reduced political pressure, it also destroyed the ideological appeal of the American model.
Europe’s position
The European Union finds itself in the most vulnerable position. Europeans are disappointed in their own leaders and do not know what to expect from the United States in the face of the Russian threat. More than half of EU citizens support strengthening military capabilities, 40% fear a Russian invasion, and 57% fear a large-scale nuclear war. Europeans are among the most pessimistic people in the world: only 21% believe in a positive future for themselves, and about half believe in a positive future for their countries and for the world as a whole. Nearly 50% doubt the EU’s ability to interact on equal terms with the United States and China.
Interestingly, respondents in China, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine consider the EU stronger than Europeans themselves do. However, the internal crisis of confidence and constant pressure from Washington and Moscow weaken Brussels’ position.
Russia, Ukraine and a new balance of power
Over the past year, Russia has softened its attitude toward the United States: the share of those who consider Washington an enemy has fallen from 64% to 37%. At the same time, Russians now perceive the European Union as their main adversary, reflecting the official line of the Kremlin.
In Ukraine, the situation is the opposite: two-thirds of the population primarily rely on support from Brussels rather than Washington. The United States is no longer seen as a reliable security guarantor, and trust in it has been declining for the second year in a row.
Multipolar world: illusion or new reality?
Most countries outside the West view the transition to a multipolar world with optimism. People believe they will be able to maintain relations with both the United States and China without being forced to make a hard choice. This approach is particularly popular in India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Russia.
However, experts warn that behind the slogan of “multipolarity” there may be a new form of domination, this time Chinese.
What’s next?
The United States is losing global trust, China is strengthening its influence, and Europe finds itself in a state of dependence and uncertainty.
European leaders face difficult choices. How can Ukraine’s security be guaranteed without direct reliance on the United States? Should Europe move closer to China? How can it confront three threats simultaneously: military from Russia, economic from China and political from the United States?
For now, one thing is clear: the era of the unipolar world is over.
