US President Donald Trump has stated that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is only possible if there is an ‘exchange’ of territories. It is unclear exactly what the American leader means by this, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already made it clear that he is not prepared to make concessions involving the loss of land.
Which territories could be up for discussion?
In addition to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, four regions could feature in potential negotiations: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Interestingly, Trump’s special envoy Steve Whitcoff could barely mention these regions in a recent interview, which raises questions about how well he is familiar with the conflict.
The Times named four possible scenarios for the division of Ukraine after the summit in Alaska.
The European option for a truce
Most European countries believe that the basis for a ceasefire should be the current front line, which is approximately 1,100 kilometres long and has remained substantially unchanged since 2022, despite Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian troops are, however, continuing to advance incrementally in the east. Moscow is now close to encircling Pokrovsk, a key point whose loss would threaten Ukrainian logistics and increase the vulnerability of supplies due to attacks by Russian FPV drones.
Putin’s price for peace
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as Donbas, became a battleground back in 2014. Ukraine has virtually lost control of the Luhansk region, but retains about a third of Donetsk. Vladimir Putin is only willing to agree to a ceasefire in exchange for full control of Donbas, say insiders. That would force Kyiv to abandon its fortified positions and open the door to new Russian gains.
Possible concessions by Kyiv
n 2022, Putin signed declarations annexing all four regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. However, Russia never controlled the city of Zaporizhzhia and was driven out of the north of the Kherson region. Despite this, in the context of its troops’ offensive, Moscow may demand additional territorial concessions from Kyiv and attempt to consolidate its claims to all four regions.
Trump’s idea of an ‘exchange’
Trump claims that any agreement will require a ‘swap’ of territories. He calls some of the land occupied by Russia ‘prime coastal real estate’ and says he would like to return part of it to Ukraine. Hypothetically, this could mean an exchange: Moscow gets the entire Donbas, and Kyiv gets part of the Kherson region. However, this scenario is unlikely. One of the key motives for the Russian invasion was precisely the attempt to create a land corridor to Crimea through Kherson.
