U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is considering several “very tough” options regarding Iran, where massive anti-government protests have been ongoing for more than two weeks. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington has warned its Middle Eastern allies about the possible preparation of strikes against Iranian territory. The exact form of a potential U.S. intervention has not yet been officially announced. The British daily The Telegraph examined four possible scenarios.
“Symbolic strikes”
The first scenario includes limited air strikes of a largely demonstrative nature. Their goal would be to send a signal to Tehran about the inadmissibility of brutal repression against protesters and to confirm Donald Trump’s threats to use force if mass killings of civilians occur.
Potential targets could include facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program as well as bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). To amplify the effect, the United States could theoretically strike an official institution located directly in Tehran. Such an operation would not require additional military reinforcements, U.S. forces already deployed in the Persian Gulf would be sufficient.
According to The Telegraph, this signal could force the regime to ease repression. However, there is also an opposite risk: if the strikes are too “symbolic,” Iranian authorities may conclude that the United States is not truly ready to intervene.
Prolonged massive bombings
The second scenario involves a large-scale military campaign aimed at overthrowing the regime. In this case, strikes would target not only the headquarters of security forces but also the numerous IRGC bases across the country.
The newspaper recalls that in June 2025, Israeli air forces attacked Iranian targets for nearly two weeks but failed to bring about a change of power. In a U.S. operation, the scale of strikes would therefore have to be significantly larger. Targets could include not only military infrastructure but also state media, courts, and prosecutors’ offices, key pillars of the control system.
To conduct such a campaign, the United States would have to deploy additional forces, including aircraft carrier strike groups. The nearest one is currently in the South China Sea, several thousand kilometers from the region. The use of allied air bases is also not guaranteed, as many countries fear Iranian retaliation.
Moreover, there is a risk that in the face of external aggression, Iranian society may instead rally around the current authorities.
The assassination of Ali Khamenei
The third scenario envisages the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The economic crisis that triggered the protests cannot be resolved without lifting sanctions. Many members of the elite understand this, but Khamenei himself does not. His removal could open the way to a “soft” transformation of the regime.
According to The Telegraph, the Trump administration is euphoric after the operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which could make this scenario appealing. In Washington, they may bet on an internal split within the regime and the emergence of figures ready to make concessions to the United States, abandoning nuclear ambitions and easing repression.
However, the risks are enormous. First, protesters may perceive any potential deals between Washington and regime representatives as a betrayal. Second, Khamenei is not only a political leader but also a religious authority for Shiites, and his assassination could destabilize the entire Middle East and lead to a major conflict.
Cyberwar
The fourth scenario involves abandoning direct military intervention in favor of supporting protesters. The United States could intensify cyberattacks to bypass censorship, ensure communication between activists and the outside world, and organize large-scale smuggling of Starlink terminals to provide internet access.
At the same time, Washington could attack Iranian government networks, disrupting coordination between security forces and officials.
However, according to some analysts, the moment has already passed. Such measures could have been effective in the early days of the protests. Now, writes The Telegraph, without direct external intervention, the regime will likely be able to suppress the protest movement.
