The recent political events in America have continually demonstrated the breakdown of the classical political institutions. The rise of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement have been trailed by ongoing dismantling of once-held unbeatable conventions. Most importantly, this process is not happening in spite of the institutions, but rather due to their actual inaction.
The American situation calls into question the familiar notion of ‘stable institutions’ that supposedly have their own autonomy. There has been historical experience to demonstrate that institutions exist only so long as powerful elite groups concur upon them. Thus, in 17th-century England, the strengthening of parliament and courts was a product of the elites’ weariness with the protracted civil war: the two factions agreed to create an arbiter that would hold in check extremes. In contrast, in Germany in the early 1930s, big capital, fearing revolution, itself abandoned parliamentary institutions and handed power to Hitler. These examples illustrate that the stability of institutions is determined not by ‘legal tradition’ but by the balance of interests among elite groups. When this balance is disrupted, institutions lose their real substance.
If predictions of J. D. Vance’s victory in the next election are confirmed, it is possible that formal procedures will lose their real significance. A transition to electoral imitation while maintaining external democratic forms is possible. A more radical scenario is also possible, such as the use of force against opposition political structures under the pretext of ‘combating extremism.’
In any case, the crisis has already become apparent, and in order to maintain stability, the system will have to undergo a reduction in excess elites, similar to what has happened in previous cycles of American history.
