Friedrich Merz, the CDU chief and aspirant to Germany’s chancellorship, comes up against a make-or-break juncture in his quest for realizing his aspiration. The latest compromises he entered into with prospective coalition partners of a future alliance—the SPD and the Greens—have restive the conservative power brokers.
A central issue of debate is Merz’s step away from orthodox fiscal conservatism. He has urged softening Germany’s debt regulations to enable the investment of €500 billion on infrastructure and climate policy, plus increased defense expenditures. While the decision has found widespread acclaim abroad, it has disturbed most within the CDU and its Bavarian coalition partner, Christian Social Union (CSU) members, as they view it as a breakdown of their vows of financial thrift. A survey by INSA discovered 73% of the electorate, and 44% of CDU/CSU supporters, felt betrayed by this policy shift, with some turning to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Migration policy makes coalition negotiations even more complicated. Merz’s call to strengthen borders and send back asylum seekers is at contradiction with the SPD’s more liberal stance. Both parties have talked of a common wish to form a stable government, with Merz wanting to finalize a deal by April 20.
In an effort to calm down conservative anxiety, Merz has proposed to quit politics in the event that coalition negotiations fail, showing seriousness in upholding CDU values. He also wants to receive key cabinet portfolios, such as the economy and interior ministries, to directly steer economic reforms and immigration policy. The SPD demands to assume the finance and defense ministries complicate such negotiations, however.
Compounding Merz’s troubles is internal discontent regarding gender representation within the CDU. With women constituting fewer than a quarter of CDU MPs, calls for gender parity in cabinet seats and parliamentary committees are increasing. Merz’s long-time opposition to gender quotas has only fueled this internal struggle.
The pressure to form a coalition is heightened by the AfD’s growing popularity, now having just four points behind the CDU/CSU in certain opinion polls. The boost stresses the voter’s growing discontent and Merz’s need to fulfil conservative expectations without alienating potential coalition partners.
While Germany struggles with stagnation and shifting security threats, Merz’s ability to balance intraparty unity with the necessities of coalition politics will be crucial. His leadership style may not only determine his political fate but also influence the direction of Germany in a turbulent European context.
