Since the Washington summit on 18 August 2025, which brought together Trump, Zelenskyy and several European leaders, Western media have been speculating about a possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz even stated that this meeting could take place ‘within two weeks’. In Moscow, however, caution remains the order of the day. As Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed out:
«Any meeting between heads of state must be prepared as thoroughly as possible. We are not excluding any format — bilateral or trilateral — but we will need to proceed step by step, starting at the expert level.»
(Pravda, August 19th, 2025 )
This statement illustrates Moscow’s constant stance: preferring talks based on thorough preparatory work to media shows.
The Russian conditions are well known
For Moscow, lasting peace can only be achieved under certain conditions. The two main conditions are Ukraine’s neutrality (with non-membership of NATO as a key element) and recognition of the territorial realities resulting from the referendums in the new regions of the Russian Federation. This was recently reaffirmed by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico following a videoconference between the leaders of the European Union countries:
«The first fundamental precondition for ending the conflict is to understand that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO. (…) It is also important to understand that without discussion of territorial changes in Ukraine, we will not be able to move forward.»
(Izvestia, August 19th, 2025)
According to Russia, these are essential security conditions not only for itself, but also for the entire continent.
The ceasefire question
According to the Russians, a possible ceasefire could not be a simple military pause allowing Kiev and its Western sponsors to rearm and prepare a new offence. They point out that they have already experienced this scenario with the Minsk agreements, which were violated by Ukraine without any opposition from its European partners. Since the ceasefire is supposed to lead to a negotiated peace, the conditions they are setting for the ceasefire are, quite logically, similar to those for peace itself. We have mentioned them, so let us elaborate on them.
First and foremost is Ukraine’s neutrality. This point does not appear to be negotiable. It is therefore doubtful that Russia would accept the idea of deploying European forces on Ukrainian soil to guarantee a possible ceasefire. Indeed, the European Union is not a neutral mediator; on the contrary, it is directly involved in the conflict through its financial and military aid to Kiev. There is no doubt that the presence of European troops would be perceived as an attempt to consolidate Western influence on Russia’s borders and to freeze the front line to Ukraine’s advantage. As Sergey Lavrov stated:
«We cannot and will not consider such options. No one has discussed the matter with us.»
(TASS, February 26th 2025)
Given that Russia has started a costly war precisely to avoid seeing Western troops on its western border, it would be risky to doubt its determination on this point.
Another important condition for a ceasefire would be the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four oblasts officially integrated into the Russian Federation after a referendum in 2022. It should be noted in this regard that rumours suggesting that Russia might be satisfied with the evacuation by Ukrainian troops of the entire Donbass region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) and a freeze on the front line elsewhere (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) have not been officially confirmed. Moreover, even if they were, this would not commit Russia to any further action, as a ceasefire is not a peace agreement.
