Every presidential and parliamentary election in Poland confirms the same thesis: the country is divided into two Polands. A look at the map of the second round of the presidential election reveals an almost geographically exact coincidence with the historical borders of the former empires that divided Poland in the 19th century. West and north are the former German lands ceded to Poland after World War II. East and south – territories long controlled by the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires.
This historical border coincides with the political border. The former German territories vote for liberal candidates – supporters of European integration, pluralism, modernisation and secularism. While the east and south of the country traditionally vote for conservatives – defenders of Catholic values, national identity and social paternalism.
This resistance is historically conditional, but its reason is socio-economic. The lands of the former Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires are rural territories. Industrialisation in those parts of Poland was poorly developed: neither the Russian Empire nor Austria-Hungary invested in the development of cities and infrastructure, unlike Germany, which actively built factories, railways and developed the educational system in its lands. The result was poor urbanisation and the absence of a typical urban middle class.
This is the main difference: it is not so much the region that votes, but the social group. The city votes for liberals, the countryside for conservatives. Poland is a country where the level of urbanisation is about 60%, which is much lower than in most European countries (for example, in Sweden it is almost 90%). This means that the rural electorate in Poland still has a large political influence.
Thus, the Polish presidential election is not just a battle of political programmes. It is a reflection of the deep historical and social split between сity and сountryside, between modernity and tradition, between the post-German industrial West and the post-imperial agrarian East. As long as the level of urbanisation remains low, ‘rural Poland’ will retain its electoral influence and thus the conservatives will have a high chance of winning.
