The Ukrainian and American delegations at the talks in Geneva managed to agree on most of the provisions of the peace plan previously proposed by Washington. According to RBC Ukraine, most of the wording that caused the most controversy was revised or softened during the dialogue.
The parameters of the permissible size of the Ukrainian armed forces, the mechanism for control over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, and the specific format for the exchange of prisoners of war and detainees remain contentious issues. At the same time, the parties decided not to include the issues of territory and the possible constitutional enshrinement of Ukraine’s non-aligned status in the document at this stage. These issues are expected to be brought to the level of direct political decisions, within the framework of a possible meeting between Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump.
Sources say that if the framework version of the plan is finally agreed between Kyiv and Washington, the next task for the US will be to synchronise it with its European allies on those points that directly affect their interests and commitments. After that, the American side intends to move on to trying to involve Russia in the negotiation process, combining pressure with the offer of certain concessions.
It should be noted that initially, the American delegation, led by Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, arrived in Kyiv with a tough stance. According to one source, Kyiv was effectively given a deadline. If Ukraine refused to accept the proposed conditions by 27 November, the US could reconsider its participation, including suspending military aid and the provision of intelligence. On the first day of negotiations, the rhetoric of the American representatives was extremely direct and tough, but later, as discussions progressed, their tone became more flexible.
The American military also conveyed its assessment of the situation on the front lines to the Ukrainian side. In their opinion, the situation could deteriorate significantly for Kyiv in the coming months, and in the medium term, within about a year, there is a high probability of losing control of the Donetsk region. According to sources, it was this forecast that became one of the key arguments pushing Washington to accelerate the negotiation track and attempt to establish new parameters for a future settlement now, while the positions of the parties are still subject to adjustment.
You can read more about Trump’s plan in our article.
