Against the backdrop of slowing growth of the Russian economy, falling oil prices and another package of European sanctions, the ruble is showing surprising resilience. To the surprise of all and economic prudence, the exchange rate of the Russian currency in terms of the dollar has settled at around 80 rubles. Furthermore, the ruble also strengthened by a close to 40% since the beginning of 2025 and remains one of the most growing currencies in the world this year. What are the reasons for such a phenomenon? And how durable is this stability?
Despite rising budget spending, slowing GDP and falling oil prices, the ruble is strengthening. The explanation lies not in fundamental factors, but rather in a combination of short-term, politically and administratively driven circumstances.
Firstly, Trump factor. Donald Trump’s return to the active political game and his escalation of trade conflicts have weakened the dollar. The very fact of negotiations between Washington and Moscow is causing foreign investors to take an interest in Russian assets – especially in the context of high interest rates within Russia, limited imports and liquidity shortages.
Secondly, manual control of the exchange rate. The Russian authorities actively intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling foreign currency from reserves. Thus, in April, against the background of the shortfall in oil and gas revenues in the amount of 65.6 billion roubles, the government again came out with interventions. This also keeps the exchange rate at a ‘psychologically comfortable’ level.
Thirdly, the effect of high interest rate. The central bank keeps the key rate at 21% per annum, which cools domestic demand, restrains imports and generally reduces pressure on the ruble. However, the high rate is a temporary measure that carries significant costs for business and trade.
Experts agree: the ruble exchange rate is overstrengthened and does not reflect the real state of the economy. Economists estimate that by the end of 2025 the ruble may weaken to 88-92 per dollar. The reasons are obvious: the continuing fall in oil prices (by 12% since the beginning of the year), sanctions restricting exports and high domestic demand for foreign currency for import payments. At the same time, according to Reuters, the government is not against a rate around 100 rubles per dollar, as a weak ruble helps replenish the budget with foreign currency earnings.
