The supply of some raw materials to the world market is critically dependent on just a few countries, whose share allows us to speak of a near monopoly. Will they be able to strengthen their position in the conditions of a trade war, or, on the contrary, will the current situation become a market loss for them and open a window of opportunity for new players?
At the beginning of April, US President Donald Trump imposed import duties of 10% for most countries and additional duties of 11% to 50% (up to 146% for China). A couple of weeks later, Trump directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate whether new duties should be imposed on imports of critical minerals. Lutnick must report his findings to the president within 180 days.
Since critical US commodities are not subject to the duties, and the duties have been postponed for 90 days for all countries except China, production and exports of rare, rare earth and some base metals are unlikely to be affected, at least this year.
Quiet Monopolies
According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), in 2024 it is China that dominates almost all types of minerals produced in the world, but it is not the only one: a number of countries occupy a near-monopoly position, but only a few are already key suppliers to the US. For example, South Africa was the top producer of chromium, which is used as a wear-resistant coating for metal products and as an additive for extra-strength steels, according to USGS estimates, accounting for 45% (21 million tonnes) in 2024.
The United States last year imported 500,000 tonnes of chromium in terms of metal in the form of ore, various chromium-containing compounds and alloys, and metallic chromium and exported 160,000 tonnes. From South Africa, the United States imported 96% of the metal consumed, contained in ore and concentrates, and 25% of pure metallic chromium. US chromium production in the United States is not disclosed by the USGS. Previously, ores and concentrates were imported duty free; ferrochrome, depending on its carbon content, was subject to a duty of 1.9-10% of the customs value, while metal, scrap and waste was subject to a 3% duty. South Africa is also a leader in the production of platinum, which is mainly used in the production of automotive catalytic converters for exhaust gas purification. It accounted for 71% of global volumes (120 tonnes out of 170 tonnes). US consumption of platinum last year totalled 71 tonnes. Imports totalled 72 tonnes, of which South Africa supplied 45%. Platinum is imported into the US duty-free.
Experts believe that the US trade war may give a chance to the countries supplying raw materials to occupy new markets for them. Trump’s imposition of duties will clearly affect exports of critical raw materials from China, while other producing countries will not feel their negative impact.
For nickel, used mainly in the production of stainless steel, Indonesia led the way in 2024, accounting for 59% of global production in terms of metal – 2.2 million tonnes out of 3.7 million tonnes. The USGS estimates US nickel consumption in 2024 at 180,000 tonnes and imports at 140,000 tonnes. The USGS does not include Indonesia in the list of major nickel-supplying countries. According to the service, last year the US received primary metal mainly from Canada at 46 per cent, Norway at 11 per cent, Australia at 8 per cent and Brazil at 6 per cent. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that by imposing duties, the US was making it harder for itself to access supplies of Canadian resources, which include nickel.
The Democratic Republic of Congo led the way in the production of cobalt, used mainly for steel alloying, last year, accounting for 76% of the world’s 220,000 tonnes of the metal. In the US, according to USGS estimates, domestic production of cobalt last year was 2,300 tonnes, while consumption was estimated at 8,000-8,500 tonnes, imports at 11,000 tonnes and exports at 4,500 tonnes. Metallic cobalt, its oxides and salts were supplied to the US by Norway 27%, Finland 17%, Japan 14% and Canada 13%. Ores, concentrates, scrap, waste cobalt and unprocessed metal could be imported duty free, but cobalt compounds were subject to a duty of 0.1-4.2% and products containing cobalt 3.7%. Congo is also a major miner of the rare metal tantalum, used in the manufacture of superalloys. Congo accounted for 42% of its production – 880 tonnes out of 2,100 tonnes. US consumption of tantalum was 770 tonnes, imports 1,300 tonnes and exports 480 tonnes. The key supplier of chromium to the US was China – 43% of the pure metal and powders. Other suppliers were Germany (27%), Kazakhstan (15%) and Thailand (5%). The main supplier of tantalum ores and concentrates, however, was Australia (58 per cent), while Congo’s share was only 12 per cent. Ores, concentrates, scrap and waste containing tantalum could be imported into the USA duty-free, unprocessed metal and its alloys were subject to a duty of 2.5%, and products using tantalum were subject to a duty of 4.4%.
