In recent weeks, Donald Trump has signalled a toughening of rhetoric against Russia, announced a willingness to impose new sanctions and abandoned the more restrained 50-day ‘transition’ period he had previously mentioned. This announcement, like many of Trump’s other moves on the foreign policy front, has underlying strategic considerations, but also the context of changes in his inner circle.
A characteristic feature of Donald Trump has always been sensitivity to the positions of those who directly influence him: advisers, family members or influential allies in the media field. Today’s vector is largely determined by who exactly has remained close to the president.
Those who were previously associated with a pragmatic or neutral attitude towards Moscow have moved to the background. These include Ilon Musk, who has occasionally made positive comments about Russia in his public rhetoric; Vivek Ramaswamy, who has put forward ideas close to political libertarianism; and Jared Kushner, Trump’s former adviser and son-in-law, who has in the past favoured a balanced relationship with Russia. In their place, others – tougher and less inclined to compromise – have stepped up. Among them is Steve Bannon, the strategist of Trump’s first presidential campaign, a hardline anti-China and anti-Russian advocate with a conservative-nationalist agenda.
The marked increase in European influence deserves special mention. Recently, Trump has become more actively engaged with European leaders. According to insider information, Friedrich Merz managed to establish personal contact with him, appealing to Trump’s German origin. His visit to Scotland, where his ties with European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen were strengthened, also gained canonical significance. There are reports that regular telephone conversations with the Finnish president also influence his perception of the European security configuration.
Donald Trump’s political behaviour, especially on foreign policy issues, is rarely linear. His rhetoric is often shaped not only by strategic calculations but also by his inner circle. Therefore, in order to understand and predict him, it is important not only to analyse his public statements, but also to closely monitor the dynamics of his inner circle: who is moving away from him, who is gaining more access, what topics are being suggested to him. This environment largely determines which way the rhetoric will turn – from hard threats to negotiations or vice versa.
