Sometimes figures are the best way to explain the logic behind the survival of authoritarian regimes. In the case of Venezuela, these figures are the forecast inflation rate of 548% for the year and the eight million people who have left the country since 2014. This is more than a quarter of the population — a demographic funnel comparable only to the aftermath of a major war or a protracted systemic catastrophe. If these proportions were applied to France, the picture would look like a mass exodus of 17 million people in a single decade.
However, for Nicolás Maduro, this emigration is becoming a tool for preserving his regime. Those who are leaving are precisely those who could become a source of political pressure: educated and economically active citizens who usually demand change. In other words, they are the ‘national intelligentsia’ who previously carried the weight of enormous public expectations, fought, united, created alternatives and, ultimately, broke down autocratic structures. Now they are simply leaving.
For modern autocracies, brain drain emigration is no longer a demographic tragedy. For many regimes, it has become, on the contrary, a pillar of stability. Studies show that the ability of the most energetic citizens to leave the country peacefully reduces the likelihood of revolutionary events to a minimum. The value of human life has increased, the willingness to fight ‘to the end’ has disappeared, and the availability of migration to first world countries has become a natural way out of the vast majority of conflicts between the individual and the state.
Venezuela is one of the most striking examples of this logic. After ten years of profound economic collapse, those who remain in the country are mainly those who are either too poor to leave or too dependent on the vertical power structure. Against the backdrop of a shattered economy, it is precisely this mass that provides a convenient support for Maduro’s Maoist style of rule. Moreover, the smaller the population, the easier it is for the administration to distribute resources. This is especially true in the context of a sharp decline in oil revenues and chronic deindustrialisation. As a result, the deeper the crisis, the easier it is for autocracies to hold on to power.
