On December 13, Alexander Lukashenko, following negotiations with the United States, released and expelled 123 political prisoners from the country. This marked the fourth wave of releases since the beginning of the year. Once again, Lukashenko is using the opposition as a bargaining chip, while the United States is treating sanctions as a tool of managed pressure. What is new in this situation is that both sides currently see the deal as beneficial. Washington has lifted sanctions on Belaruskali, a strategic exporter vital to the Belarusian economy. In return, Minsk has released symbols of the 2020 protests and internationally recognized opposition leaders: Viktar Babaryka, Maria Kalesnikava, and Ales Bialiatski.
Why Washington agreed to this
Belarus is not a priority in U.S. foreign policy. However, the Trump administration views Belarus as a convenient case: the release of prisoners is easy to “sell” to voters, and it allows Washington to demonstrate that sanctions can work when applied correctly.
The appointment of a special envoy for Belarus has institutionalized the dialogue. This means that exchanges are likely to continue. Lukashenko understands this, which is why some political prisoners have been kept in reserve, especially those important to Poland and Lithuania.
Potash: an economic victory or an illusion?
The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Belaruskali is an important but still incomplete success. Without access to European ports, Belarusian potash remains hostage to logistical constraints. Russian routes are overloaded and economically inefficient. Lithuania has taken a hard line. Poland is waiting for political concessions it has not received. In essence, Minsk is counting on Washington to push transit solutions through its allies or to propose alternatives. Such options do exist, but all of them require further concessions from Lukashenko. This is precisely why further releases are likely.
The opposition: the end of Tikhanovskaya’s monopoly
One of the main consequences of the deal is the transformation of the Belarusian opposition. For five years, it operated in a pyramidal structure with a single recognized leader in the person of Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya and a rigid political hierarchy. That model is now collapsing. The return of Babaryka and Kalesnikava means the emergence of alternative centers of legitimacy, a more moderate and pragmatic tone, and a willingness to discuss the gradual lifting of sanctions.
What comes next
Most likely, releases will continue but in a calibrated manner; sanctions will be lifted partially; Belarus will remain an authoritarian state, but with reduced international isolation; and the opposition will enter a period of internal competition and reassessment of its goals.
