European countries are debating, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the creation of an autonomous nuclear deterrence system amid growing doubts about the reliability of American security guarantees, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
At present, Europe’s security is ensured by the United States’ “nuclear umbrella,” a framework of strategic guarantees that includes American weapons deployed on European territory. In Europe, only France and the United Kingdom possess their own nuclear arsenals.
According to the agency, French President Emmanuel Macron may soon propose extending the protection of France’s nuclear deterrent forces to other European countries. Such an announcement could be made at the Munich Security Conference or later in February. Subsequently, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that he has begun discussions with Paris on a potential model of European nuclear deterrence.
As Bloomberg notes, replacing the American “umbrella” with a system based on French capabilities could pose a financial challenge for many countries in the region. In 2025, European Union member states and the United Kingdom have already allocated more than $530 billion to defense, primarily to strengthen conventional forces.
By estimates, France and the United Kingdom together possess around 400 deployed warheads. By comparison, the United States has approximately 1,670 deployed warheads, a figure that could rise following the expiration of the New START treaty. Russia and the United States nonetheless retain overwhelming superiority in the global nuclear balance.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as of early 2025, nine nuclear-armed states: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, possessed a total of 12,241 warheads. Approximately 9,614 of them were considered potentially operational, and about 2,100 were maintained on high operational alert.
Agency sources note that, in theory, some European states could establish the infrastructure necessary to produce nuclear weapons. However, this would require the construction of nuclear power plants, costly uranium enrichment facilities, and the political willingness to reconsider non-proliferation commitments.
At the same time, President Donald Trump has not publicly questioned the principle of the American nuclear umbrella, and Washington’s calls on its European allies have mainly focused on increasing spending on conventional armaments.
