Participants in the mass protests in Iran, which began on December 28, were counting on direct support from the United States. President Donald Trump publicly stated that “help is on the way” and called on Iranians to overthrow the ayatollahs’ rule. However, no military action from Washington followed. The Washington Post and Axios investigated why Trump backed away from a forceful scenario at the last moment. Le Monde Vu D’ailleurs summarizes their reports.
How Trump considered striking Iran
Trump’s first statements came as early as January 2. He wrote that if Iranian authorities continued to “shoot and brutally kill peaceful protesters,” the United States would come to their aid. At that time, the White House administration did not view the protests as a serious threat to the regime. Intelligence agencies assessed them as scattered and not particularly dangerous.
This assessment changed on January 8, when protest activity sharply increased. On January 9, the first high-level meeting on the situation in Iran was held at the White House, chaired by Vice President J.D. Vance. By that point, Iranian authorities had shut down the internet, begun using live ammunition, and carried out mass arrests.
On January 10–11, according to Axios, Trump was presented with several military strike options against Iranian regime facilities — including attacks from U.S. Navy ships and submarines. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi contacted Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss possible de-escalation. This informal communication channel later played an important role in the decision-making process, the outlet reports.
On January 13, Trump personally participated for the first time in a meeting on Iran. Advisors presented him with military scenarios, including targeted strikes. The president ordered preparations to continue but did not give the command to launch an operation.
On January 14, both at the White House and in the Middle East, it was expected that a strike would be carried out. Iran closed its airspace, while the United States began evacuating personnel from its military bases. However, after the national security meeting, no order was issued. A source told Axios that Trump “wanted to continue observing the situation.”
Why Trump changed his mind
According to The Washington Post, on the same day Witkoff delivered a message to Trump from Iranian authorities stating that, as a gesture of de-escalation, Tehran would cancel mass executions of protesters. The U.S. president later referred to this factor to explain his softened rhetoric.
However, pragmatic considerations proved decisive.
On January 14, Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He warned that Israel had not yet восстановила its military resources after the 12-day war with Iran in the summer of 2025 and was not prepared for a possible Iranian retaliation. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt took a similar stance, fearing major regional destabilization.
The Pentagon also expressed doubts. According to military assessments, the United States did not have sufficient forces in the Middle East to repel a potential Iranian counterattack. A large portion of the fleet was concentrated in the Caribbean as part of a pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The key argument was the lack of guarantees of regime change in Iran. Trump was not convinced that even a large-scale strike would lead to the fall of the ayatollahs’ power.
Tehran’s response
On January 17, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused Trump of being responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iranians whom he allegedly incited to unrest. In response, the U.S. president called the ayatollah “a sick man” and said the country’s leadership should focus on governance rather than “killing thousands of people to maintain power.”
According to Iranian human rights defenders, by January 18 at least 3,900 people had been killed. On January 19, an anonymous source within Iranian structures confirmed the deaths of at least five thousand people.
