According to Reuters, Venezuela is considering two possible scenarios in the event of a military attack by the United States. Sources familiar with the country’s plans and capabilities say that the authorities are preparing for asymmetric defence, recognising the serious imbalance of forces and technical lag behind the American army.
The first scenario is a transition to protracted guerrilla resistance. Senior officials have already publicly mentioned such a strategy, albeit without specifics. According to documents, in the event of an attack, military units should disperse to more than 280 locations throughout the country, operating in small groups and carrying out acts of sabotage. It is assumed that they will hide in hard-to-reach places, disrupt the enemy’s logistics, and create threats to its ground and air operations. Against this backdrop, President Nicolás Maduro announced the deployment of about 5,000 Russian Igla portable anti-aircraft systems, which, according to the military’s plan, should complicate any attempts by the United States to establish control over Venezuela’s airspace.
The second scenario appears more radical. It involves the ‘anarchisation’ of Venezuela — the use of special services and armed supporters of the government to create chaos in Caracas and other key locations. This approach has not been officially acknowledged, but sources claim that it has been developed as a backup strategy to destabilise the state to such an extent that external intervention would be politically and strategically unjustifiable. In this case, any attempts by the US to establish control could encounter not so much organised resistance from the army as chaos that cannot be suppressed by conventional military means.
At the same time, Reuters draws attention to the weakness of the Venezuelan armed forces. Poor training, low salaries and technical wear and tear on weapons seriously limit their combat effectiveness. Privates receive about $100 a month, which often leads to desertion. And the condition of the equipment, mainly Soviet and Russian, raises serious questions. Outdated Sukhoi fighter jets, old helicopters and tanks are in need of repair, and some of the man-portable air defence systems may be unsuitable for active use. Despite this, Maduro has managed to maintain the loyalty of the command staff by appointing officers to government positions.
Relations between the US and Venezuela deteriorated during Donald Trump’s second term, when his administration refused to recognise Maduro as the legitimate president and accused his government of aiding drug trafficking. Tensions have risen sharply in recent weeks: Washington sent its newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald Ford, destroyers and fighter jets to the Caribbean, and since September has carried out more than 20 strikes on ships allegedly carrying drugs, killing more than 80 people. On 29 November, Trump announced the closure of Venezuela’s airspace, although, as Reuters notes, no orders followed. Earlier, he spoke with Maduro and stated directly that if he did not leave voluntarily, the US would consider other options, including the use of force.
