The corruption crisis that unfolded in Ukraine in mid-November became the most serious domestic political challenge for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team since the start of the full-scale war. In calmer times, revelations affecting the president’s inner circle would inevitably have led to the resignation of the government and, probably, to early elections. Now, however, with the political system operating under martial law, the scandal is taking on a much more complex and unpredictable form.
Back in the summer, it became clear that relations between the President’s Office and the anti-corruption vertical were rapidly deteriorating. The attempt to limit the powers of the NABU was calculated to appeal to a society weary of war and to the goodwill of the West, which seemed to value Ukrainian stability more than internal squabbles. However, the EU strongly condemned the initiative, and Ukraine’s largest cities saw their first protests since February 2022. As a result, anti-corruption officials only accelerated their work on cases involving the upper echelons of power.
The culmination was the investigation into businessman Timur Mindich, a long-time acquaintance of Zelensky and a member of his inner circle. His biography reflects all the ways in which Ukrainian politics intersects with big business: Kolomoisky, business contacts in Russia, participation in Kvartal 95 projects. Mindich later became one of the symbols of the new military oligarchy that grew out of defence contracts. According to NABU, he was behind the shadow network that parasitised on Energoatom, a structure of particular importance in the context of Russia’s energy pressure.
The publication of excerpts from wiretaps collected as part of Operation Midas revealed a picture of deeply entrenched informal management of state assets: kickbacks, cash registers and a carefully constructed cash-out network. The revelations quickly spread beyond the energy sector and began to affect increasingly high-ranking officials: from former Defence Minister Rustem Umerov to the recently appointed Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. The story of Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshev, who is linked to the same financial network, has also become relevant again. The situation is complicated by the presence of people associated with Andrii Derkach, the former long-time head of Energoatom, who is now cooperating with the Russian authorities. In this context, the scandal is doubly difficult for the authorities, who are trying to maintain the trust of the public and international partners.
This story quickly became the focus of Ukrainian domestic politics. The opposition, which had long been restricted in its political space, immediately became more active. Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party is demanding the government’s resignation and calling for the formation of a cabinet of national unity. The Voice party, through its MPs, is providing a constant stream of information about the investigations. Even Vadym Novinsky, who was previously associated with the pro-Russian opposition, is seizing the moment, calling on Zelenskyy to resign.
European leaders have supported NABU and demanded a full and transparent investigation. Further assistance to Kyiv may be directly linked to anti-corruption purges. Zelenskyy himself is trying to distance himself from what is happening and is showing support for the investigation. However, it is difficult to expect the scandal to blow over. Ukrainian society traditionally reacts painfully to corruption, especially in the defence and energy sectors, which are directly related to the country’s security. The Ukroboronprom affair cost Poroshenko his chances of re-election, even though the context was much less acute. The NABU tapes are already being compared to the Melnichenko tapes, the consequences of which became a turning point in Ukraine’s political history in the early 2000s.
