After nearly three weeks of street demonstrations in large numbers in Madagascar, there has been a change of power. President Andry Rajoelina, who had been in power for more than ten years, left the island, and the army announced that it was taking over the state.
Captain Michael Randrianirina, commander of the powerful unit CAPSAT, announced on 14 October that institutions at the very top of government, like the Senate, the Constitutional Court and the Electoral Commission, had been closed. In theory, the only one working is the National Assembly, which just voted to impeach Rajoelina a few minutes before the army communiqué. Whether it is valid is questionable. The day before, the president had dissolved parliament at his own initiative, and the deputies did not acknowledge this initiative.
The former head of state managed to leave the country, asserting that his life was threatened. According to Reuters, Rajoelina was evacuated on a French military aircraft through the mediation of Emmanuel Macron. Paris, for its part, underlined the need to respect the constitutional order, but was not going to interfere directly. Yet, France has traditionally had great influence over the old colony. Madagascar remains part of the Francophone world, and trade ties with Paris remain the basis of island foreign commerce.
The 25 September demonstrations began as social protest due to chronic water and power shortages. They soon evolved into political crisis. Young people demanded a toppling of the power. In response, Rajoelina dissolved the government, promising conversation and even resignation on a voluntary basis should the energy crisis not be resolved within one month. These promises never worked. Acts of oppressive suppression did nothing but inflate the demonstrations. The UN accounted for 22 people who were killed. The tide swung in favor of the protesters when the elite special forces unit called CAPSAT, which had previously helped Razouelin rise to power in 2008, defected to the protesters.
Madagascar remains one of the world’s poorest countries, having a per capita GDP of approximately $600 per year. Seventy percent of the populace live below the poverty line. At the same time, the island is richly endowed with natural resources, ranging from cobalt and nickel to rare earth elements, and thus quite a potential strategic player in the era of green energy.
