On 8 September, the French National Assembly dismissed Prime Minister François Bayrou, refusing to give his cabinet a vote of confidence. He is the fourth head of government to lose his position since January 2024. The reason is the failure of the budget strategy designed to sharply reduce the deficit. However, the crisis goes far beyond the economic agenda: it is about the systemic instability of French politics.
François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement, was appointed head of government in January 2025 as a compromise candidate. His task was to unite the fragmented National Assembly, divided into three almost equal factions: the centrist coalition Together for the Republic (Macron’s supporters), the left-wing New Popular Front and the right-wing extremist National Rally. Yet, as the vote on 8 September showed, the task was mission impossible: 364 deputies voted against the government, and only 194 voted in its favor. France is experiencing such frequent government collapses for the first time since the 1960s.
The situation escalated after Bayrou presented the budget plan for 2026: the prime minister proposed reducing the deficit from 5.8% to 4.6% of GDP, which would require savings of €43.8 billion. The package of measures included freezing the indexation of social benefits, reducing healthcare spending, cutting the number of civil servants and even cancelling two public holidays (Easter Monday and 8 May). Bayrou’s statement that ‘the French need to work more’ caused a storm of indignation. According to polls, 84% of residents opposed the cancellation of holidays, and 72% supported the resignation of the government. Trade unions and the Bloquons Tout movement announced mass strikes.
The prime minister’s political opponents took advantage of the situation: the left accused him of ‘punitive policies,’ while the right accused him of unwillingness to combat ‘excessive spending on migrants.’ Ultimately, the alliance of irreconcilable opponents led to the collapse of the cabinet.
Possible Scenarios and Forecasts
Now President Emmanuel Macron is forced to look for a successor to Bayrou. Among the possible candidates are Economy Minister Eric Lombard, Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin. There is also talk of appointing a socialist, which would reduce social tensions but slow down the reduction of public debt. However, the new prime minister will immediately inherit the previous problems: a lack of stable support in parliament and the threat of a vote of no confidence at any moment. This will only prolong the protracted crisis.
The far right, led by Jordan Bardella, is demanding the dissolution of parliament and new elections. This idea is supported by 69% of French people. But forecasts show that even in the event of new elections, no single force will obtain an absolute majority. Accordingly, there will be the same deadlock and political paralysis, only after costly elections.
An even more radical option is the resignation of the president himself. The left, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is preparing an initiative to remove him from office, although the chances of success are minimal. Macron does not intend to leave office before the end of his term, and the impeachment procedure is practically impossible. However, falling ratings are exacerbating the legitimacy crisis of the authorities. Macron’s popularity has reached a historic low of only 15–17%. According to Elabe, 67% of French people want him to resign early. For comparison, Bardella’s rating is 39% and Marine Le Pen’s is 37%.
France therefore finds itself in a situation where no decision seems capable of pulling the country out of the crisis. Until the 2027 presidential elections, the country will probably experience a climate of permanent instability, which risks not only causing internal unrest, but also reducing Paris’s influence within the European Union.
