In 2025, the South Asian region is once again on the brink of military disaster. The killing of 26 Indian tourists in Kashmir in April this year provoked a harsh reaction from New Delhi. India blamed Pakistani radical groups for the attack, citing intelligence and intercepts. Islamabad categorically denied the allegations, but the rhetoric between the two nuclear powers began to harden sharply.
Amid troop mobilisations along the Line of Control in Kashmir and mutual firing, international analysts increasingly talk of the risk of a large-scale war. But beyond the region, this escalation could also hit another seemingly distant conflict – Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Between 2022 and 2024, Pakistan, despite its traditionally cautious foreign policy, has become one of the main ‘shadow’ suppliers of artillery ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As investigations by The Print and Business Standard have shown, the supplies went mainly through third countries, including the UK, the US and, especially, the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic acted as an intermediary, buying Pakistani-made ammunition and organising its logistics to Eastern Europe.
Pakistan’s state-owned enterprises play an important role in this process, especially Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF), the largest producer of small arms and artillery in the country. POF’s products are manufactured in factories equipped with Chinese machine tools and automation systems, making China an indirect participant in these supplies.
According to Western sources, in the first half of 2024 alone, more than 200,000 artillery shells of 155 mm calibre were shipped through Pakistani factories, which Ukraine is using on the fronts in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. The Czech Republic has committed to transfer another 1.8 million shells to Ukraine in 2025, of which a significant portion – at least 500,000-600,000 – are potentially planned from Pakistani reserves.
If the conflict between India and Pakistan escalates, Islamabad will obviously have to reorient its industry to domestic needs, from ammunition for artillery and tanks to small calibre shells. Even partial mobilisation will require a significant increase in production and, most likely, a suspension of export contracts. For Ukraine, which faces a particularly acute shortage of ammunition in 2025, any narrowing of supply channels could be critical.
