Plans to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine have once again found themselves at the centre of European discussions – and this time they have become a clear example of the growing gap between the strategic ambitions and the real potential of European armies. The Times reported that amid discussions on the creation of a contingent of 25,000 soldiers, defence ministers of leading European countries expressed serious doubts about the reality of such a mission.
According to the British edition, Admiral Tony Radakin, head of the British Defence Staff, initiated the idea of forming a larger group – 64 thousand people – but quickly faced a harsh reality. Already at the meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing’ on 10 April, it became clear: even 25,000 is the limit of what is possible, and it requires serious coordination and political will.
The main problem is the poor manning and chronic underfunding of European armies. In recent decades, defence budgets in most EU countries have been shrinking, and armies have been oriented towards expeditionary missions and peacekeeping operations rather than full-scale defence.
Defence ministers, who continued the discussion in a smaller circle in Brussels, estimated that, assuming rotation over two years, maintaining a 25,000-strong contingent would require the mobilisation of 256,000 troops. For many countries, such figures are simply not feasible.
According to The Times, the UK and France remain the most ready to participate. London has expressed readiness to allocate up to 10,000 military personnel, Paris – from five to ten thousand. However, even these proposals do not cover the needs of the entire mission.
Finland and Estonia are concerned about weakening their own defences: stationing soldiers abroad threatens the security of their borders with Russia. Poland, Spain and Italy, sources say, have ‘made it clear’ that they will not participate in the mission. Germany and Finland are also generally against sending ground troops, although Berlin, unlike Helsinki, does not rule out such a possibility in the future.
Nevertheless, Moscow is categorically opposed to any presence of foreign troops in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated in February that Russia considers the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine ‘absolutely unacceptable.’
For Europe, the debate over a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine is not just a matter of logistics or numbers. It is a litmus test of the ability of European countries to act as a unified defence actor, especially as the traditional role of the US as Europe’s security guarantor becomes less predictable.
Whether the peacekeeping mission will become a reality remains to be seen. But it is already clear: Europe will have to rethink its own role in the global security system, not just gather troops.
