Azerbaijan is working to establish its place in the European market for energy and will increase supplies of natural gas in the coming years. According to SOCAR Deputy Vice President Vitaly Beglyarbekov, in 2026 Azerbaijan will export between 14 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe per year, 17% higher than in 2023. The next increase to 20 billion cubic meters yearly in 2027 will be contingent upon demand in the region and European partners’ readiness to undertake new infrastructure obligations.
In the first half of 2024, 12.7 billion cubic meters of gas were exported from Azerbaijan, of which 6.4 billion (51%) were exported to Europe. This is 6% more than in the same half of last year.
Yet, substantial investments of around $18.5 billion would be required to attain export growth aspirations. They are required for the pipeline network development, such as the Southern Gas Corridor. In addition, if the expansion provides for the possibility of “green” hydrogen transport, Azerbaijan will be able to count on investment support from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank.
Among Azerbaijan’s geopolitics of ambitions, there should be a mention of plans to export gas to Slovakia under the SOCAR-SPP cooperation. That enlarges geography for sales and strengthens the position of the country on the European energy market.
Nevertheless, there are challenges to consider. Precisely, the issue of re-exporting Russian gas to Europe as Azerbaijani gas is being pondered, which causes concern among European officials. Former European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Kadri Simson warned against such manipulations, stressing the need for transparency of energy supplies.
Therefore Azerbaijan is reiterating its desire to expand its presence on the European gas market, yet these projects will be difficult to realize unless there are crossing of financial and geopolitical barriers as well as there is assurance on transparency and stability of supplies.
