In a historic verdict on March 31, 2025, France’s far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of abusing European Union funds and thereby barred from holding public office for five years. The ruling practically bars her from contesting the 2027 presidential election, a contest where she was previously a strong favorite.
The Paris court of criminal instruction ruled that Le Pen, along with other party members, diverted millions of euros of funds intended for European Parliament assistants and redirected the funds to finance the party’s activities in France between 2004 and 2016. Le Pen and her employees were particularly culpable of diverting around €4 million from the funds allocated for parliamentary assistants to compensate party workers who did not handle parliament affairs.
As part of her sentence, Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, two suspended, and a €100,000 fine. The court stipulated that the two years can be served under electronic surveillance. Regardless of the conviction, Le Pen is still eligible to sit as a Member of Parliament for Pas-de-Calais.
Le Pen denounced the verdict as an “outrage” and vowed to appeal, saying the prosecution is seeking to “ruin” her National Rally party. Appeals could take several months, casting a shadow over her political career.
The court ruling has wider implications for French politics, particularly among its supporters. Without it, attention is now turning to potential successors, in particular Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old leader of the Rassemblement National. Bardella, the party’s figurehead, is now being presented as a prime candidate for the 2027 presidential election, although he is often criticised for his lack of experience.
Responses abroad have been diverse. Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Hungarian Premier Viktor Orbán are among the world leaders who have defended Le Pen, deeming the verdict politically motivated. In France, the conviction has sparked debates on the legality of political financing and its general impact on French democratic proceedings.
Financial markets reacted to the news with a degree of stability. French and German 10-year yield spreads widened slightly by two basis points to 73, following actions in other European government bond spreads in a risk-off world. France’s CAC 40 stock market index declined 2% when announced.
As the situation develops, the National Rally will be forced to adapt its leadership and tactics without the assistance of its leader. How competently it manages to do so will be determinative of its future role in French politics, especially in the 2027 presidential election.
