Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was Turkey’s most influential political adversary of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But that menace may be no more after Imamoglu was arrested by Turkish police on March 19 for corruption and terrorism support charges.
The arrest came the week Imamoglu was to be announced as the opposition party’s presidential candidate, before the 2028 due election. It also came just a day after the revocation of his university degree, something he cannot afford to lose if he is to stand for presidency according to the country’s law.
Why Imamoglu might be a threat to Erdogan?
Imamoglu has crafted an image that appeals to broad sections of Turkish society. Where Erdogan often tries to portray opposition leaders as elitist secularists out of touch with the masses, Imamoglu has tried to debunk that. His surname means “son of an imam”, and his frequent attendance at Friday prayers resonates with religious voters. Yet he also leads a modern life, collecting art and taking ski vacations.
How did Imamoglu rise to the political pedestal?
Imamoglu was a member of Turkey’s main opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP) in 2008. He appeared as a victor in the mayoral race in Istanbul in 2019 as an obscure politician. Such elections brought him into the country’s spotlight. The first victory was annulled on account of suspected fraudulence, but Imamoglu in a re-election triumphed over Erdogan’s chosen candidate with 54.2% of the vote.
His victory ended the 25-year grip of the country’s largest city by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its predecessors and made Imamoglu the leader among opposition politicians. During his first term in office as a mayor, Imamoglu has been working on the expansion of public transportation, increasing metro lines, and implementing social initiatives aimed at supporting mothers and students. His positive and open-minded leadership style represented a contrast with Erdogan’s leadership style, which was more centralizing and divisive.
Imamoglu, by 2023, already stood as the strongest oppositional candidate to be nominated against Erdogan in the election for president. However, CHP opted for their leader at that time, which was Kemal Kilicdaroglu, but he lost the election to Erdogan.
Imamoglu then was re-elected as the mayor of Istanbul in 2024 once more against an Erdogan candidate. The victory was part of a nationwide pattern in rejecting Erdogan and his AK Party when there were economic crises and uncontrolled inflation, which at the time was on the verge of reaching nearly 70% per annum. The victory re-energized the CHP and made Imamoglu Erdogan’s biggest political threat.
Imamoglu’s arrest is culmination of years of court hearings and probes on Imamoglu and as part of a broader crackdown in recent weeks on opposition politicians, activists and government critics. Beyond that, over 100 other people were also brought into detention together with Imamoglu, such as two district mayors in Istanbul and CHP members.
How Imamoglu’s arrest influenced the financial markets?
The lira declined by 11% against the dollar on March 19, the biggest drop since 2021. Turkish banks retaliated by selling between $8 billion to $9 billion to shore up the Turkish currency, as a central bank official in a Reuters report revealed. Turkish equities dropped precipitously as well, with the benchmark BIST 100 Index closing barely below 9% lower on the day. Government bonds were also impacted as 10-year yields increased to their 2025 peak by mid-March.
