On this 4 October 2026, nearly 160 million Brazilians are called to the polls. Facing incumbent President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, 80, Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro is running under the banner of the Liberal Party and carrying his father\u2019s political legacy. The polls show them neck and neck, and a runoff looks likely on 25 October.<\/p>\n\n
Commentators will talk about Lula\u2019s social record, the wear and tear of power, and a country split in two since 2022. But the real stakes of this election lie beyond Brazil\u2019s borders. They come down to a single question: where will Brazil stand in a world that is reshaping itself?<\/p>\n\n
For Brazil is no ordinary country. A founding member of the BRICS, South America\u2019s largest economy, an agricultural and mining giant, it is the keystone of any strategy in the hemisphere. If Lula wins, Brazil remains anchored to the BRICS. If Bolsonaro wins, it will drift away from them and move closer to the United States. Donald Trump will then have completed his grip on the “Western Hemisphere.”<\/p>\n\n
<\/strong>Lula, or Brazil Anchored to the BRICS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n Lula is one of the founding fathers of the BRICS. It was during his second presidency that Brazil, Russia, India and China held, in Yekaterinburg in 2009, the first summit of what was then still just the BRIC. Since returning to power in 2023, he has put strategic autonomy, universalist diplomacy and the Global South back at the heart of Brazilian foreign policy. His 2026 platform continues along the same line.<\/p>\n\n This course comes at a price, and Lula accepts it. When he hosted the BRICS summit in Rio in July 2025, he compared Donald Trump to an “emperor” nobody wants. Washington responded by threatening tariffs against the bloc and its supposedly anti-American policies, and then with punitive duties on Brazilian exports. Lula did not back down.<\/p>\n\n Lula\u2019s Brazil also means an openly embraced partnership with Beijing, the country\u2019s largest customer and leading trading partner. It means a BRICS bank chaired by former President Dilma Rousseff. And it means a refusal to fall in line with American security priorities in the region, as shown by his opposition to Washington\u2019s designation of Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations.<\/p>\n\n A re-elected Lula, in what would in all likelihood be his final term, would therefore mean continuity: a Brazil that remains a pillar of the BRICS, a spokesman for the Global South, and locked in a lasting confrontation with the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n Bolsonaro, or Brazil Turning Toward Washington<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, 45, a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019, presents himself as a more moderate Bolsonaro. On foreign policy, however, his direction is unmistakable. His platform explicitly names the United States, Argentina and Israel as Brazil\u2019s “most important and traditional” partners.<\/p>\n\n The Liberal Party candidate wants a free trade agreement with Washington, stronger security cooperation, and a partnership on rare earths, of which Brazil holds some of the largest reserves in the world. He backed Trump\u2019s decision to designate two Brazilian criminal organizations as terrorist groups. He even went so far as to ask the United States to put pressure on Bras\u00edlia to guarantee “free and fair” elections.<\/p>\n\n As for the BRICS, he considers the bloc too hostile to the West and has said he would reassess Brazil\u2019s place within it. His father, for his part, called it in 2025 a “brotherhood of dictatorships and war criminals.” Brazil would not need to slam the door to change the game. Drifting away would be enough: slowing de-dollarization, blocking anti-Washington positions from within, ceasing to champion the multipolar project. The BRICS would then lose their foothold in Latin America and much of their credibility.<\/p>\n\n <\/strong>Trump and the Western Hemisphere: The Missing Piece<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has made the Western Hemisphere his strategic priority. His National Security Strategy of December 2025 openly frames this as a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. The stated goal: that no competitor from outside the hemisphere should own or control strategic assets on the American continent. China is, of course, the primary target.<\/p>\n\n The map has been redrawn in a matter of months. In Venezuela, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro was captured by American forces in January 2026. In Argentina, Javier Milei remains Washington\u2019s most loyal ally, backed financially by the U.S. Treasury. Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast\u2019s Chile, Rodrigo Paz\u2019s Bolivia, Daniel Noboa\u2019s Ecuador and Nasry Asfura\u2019s Honduras have shifted in the same direction. Panama has withdrawn from the Belt and Road Initiative\u2026<\/p>\n\n In this picture, Brazil stands out as the exception. It is the largest country, the largest economy, and the only founding member of the BRICS in the hemisphere. As long as Lula governs in Bras\u00edlia, America\u2019s hold on the continent remains incomplete, and Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi keep a heavyweight partner there.<\/p>\n\n A victory for Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro would change that. It would tip the region\u2019s last major holdout and give Trump something no American president has achieved since the end of the Cold War: a Western Hemisphere almost entirely aligned with Washington.<\/p>\n\n <\/strong>A Vote Watched in Washington and Beijing Alike<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n The Brazilian election will therefore be closely watched far beyond Latin America. In Washington, it is seen as a chance to complete the reconquest of America\u2019s backyard. In Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi, it is seen as a test of whether the BRICS can be a truly global project rather than a mere Eurasian club. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On this 4 October 2026, nearly 160 million Brazilians are called to the polls. 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