{"id":7198,"date":"2026-03-03T19:46:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T18:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/?p=7198"},"modified":"2026-03-03T19:55:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T18:55:55","slug":"iran-hormuz-strait-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/en\/iran-hormuz-strait-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy War: Iran Strikes the Gulf, Markets React with a Price Surge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">On the fourth day of the new large-scale war, Tehran\u2019s strategy has become clear: instead of pursuing direct symmetrical escalation against the United States and Israel, Iran is attempting to plunge the region into controlled energy chaos. The strikes are targeting civilian infrastructure in third countries \u2014 primarily the oil and gas monarchies of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, explicit threats are being issued against tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  <\/p>\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil: Heading Toward $100?<\/h4>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">On March 3, May Brent futures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ice.com\/products\/219\/Brent-Crude-Futures\/data?marketId=6018439\">climbed<\/a> to $85 per barrel, nearly 10% above March 2 levels. During the first trading session after the outbreak of war, prices had already jumped from $73 to nearly $80. <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">The latest surge was triggered by a statement from Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz: any vessel attempting to cross it could be targeted. No formal evidence of mining has been confirmed, but on the morning of March 3, no tankers were present in the strait, while hundreds of vessels were accumulating at its entrances. <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-02\/economists-gauge-hit-from-mideast-war-as-china-seen-among-losers\">Bloomberg Economics<\/a>, a short-term blockade could push Brent up to $108 per barrel. JPMorgan had previously suggested a $120\u2013130 range in the event of a prolonged closure. The key variable remains the duration of the active threat phase.  <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">An additional risk comes from direct strikes on infrastructure. On March 2, Saudi Aramco preemptively <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/saudi-aramco-shuts-ras-tanura-refinery-after-drone-strike-source-says-2026-03-02\/\">shut down <\/a>a refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day and began redirecting part of its exports through alternative routes, including pipelines to the Red Sea. If the threat to shipping is not lifted in the coming weeks, major producers could face storage constraints and be forced to cut output \u2014 further intensifying upward price pressure.  <\/p>\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gas: An Even Stronger Shock Than Oil<\/h4>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">For the gas market, the crisis has been even more severe. Up to 20% of global seaborne LNG exports pass through Hormuz. More critically, attacks on Qatar\u2019s infrastructure, the world\u2019s leading producer of liquefied natural gas, have deeply shaken the market.  <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">On March 2, Qatar confirmed two Iranian drone strikes: facilities in Mesaieed were hit, as well as the Ras Laffan terminal, the world\u2019s largest LNG hub, with a capacity of 77 million tons per year (nearly one-fifth of global supply).<\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">Futures at Europe\u2019s TTF gas hub surged by nearly 50% in a single day, reaching \u20ac46\u201347 per MWh. The market has not seen such moves since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-01\/goldman-says-european-gas-could-jump-130-on-hormuz-disruption\">Goldman Sachs<\/a>, if tanker transit through Hormuz is not secured within a month, gas prices in Europe could rise by 130%. If the crisis lasts two months, prices would exceed \u20ac100 per MWh. After cutting pipeline gas supplies from Russia, the EU became more dependent on LNG. Storage levels in several countries remain below target. Higher import costs would mean renewed inflationary pressure and a risk of economic slowdown.    <\/p>\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can Iran Really Close Hormuz?<\/h4>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">Iran has already attacked at least three civilian vessels. At the same time, U.S. command claims to have neutralized Iranian naval assets in the Gulf of Oman. However, Tehran is relying on asymmetric tactics: drones, short-range missiles, and targeted strikes against ships and infrastructure.  <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">According to several experts, Iran would be capable of imposing a short-term blockade. Moreover, a lower-cost \u201cwar of attrition\u201d, based on persistent threats and intermittent attacks, could be sustained for months. That is why drone and missile production facilities have become priority targets for the United States and Israel. If those strikes fail to achieve their objectives, maritime traffic may only resume under military escort.   <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-author\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__avatar\"><img alt='Avatar photo' src='https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-Simple-Minimalist-Creative-Studio-Logo-150-x-100-px-96x96.png' srcset='https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-Simple-Minimalist-Creative-Studio-Logo-150-x-100-px-192x192.png 2x' class='avatar avatar-96 photo' height='96' width='96' \/><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-author__name\">La R\u00e9daction<\/p><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On the fourth day of the new large-scale war, Tehran\u2019s strategy has become clear: instead of pursuing direct&hellip;","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,38],"tags":[48],"class_list":{"0":"post-7198","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-economy","7":"category-geopolitics","8":"tag-articles-en","9":"cs-entry","10":"cs-video-wrap"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Iran-Hormuz Strait War: Surge in Oil and Gas Prices in Europe - Le Monde Vu D&#039;ailleurs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The war around the Strait of Hormuz is driving oil and gas prices sharply higher. 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