{"id":6255,"date":"2025-10-29T18:18:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T17:18:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/?p=6255"},"modified":"2025-10-29T18:19:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T17:19:41","slug":"chinese-deflation-and-deglobalisation-the-end-of-the-export-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/en\/chinese-deflation-and-deglobalisation-the-end-of-the-export-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Chinese Deflation and Deglobalisation: The End of the Export Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">La Chine entre dans une phase de d\u00e9flation. Il y a quelques ann\u00e9es encore, cela semblait impossible pour une \u00e9conomie fond\u00e9e sur les exportations et une expansion agressive. Le graphique montre comment l&#8217;indice des prix \u00e0 la production chute rapidement en territoire n\u00e9gatif. En septembre 2025, le co\u00fbt des biens de consommation durables produits en Chine avait baiss\u00e9 de 3,9 % par rapport \u00e0 l&#8217;ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. Cette baisse a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec l&#8217;introduction de nouveaux droits de douane \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle sur les importations chinoises aux \u00c9tats-Unis.    <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"582\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-1024x582.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6248\" style=\"width:435px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-1024x582.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-300x171.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-768x437.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-527x300.jpg 527w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-1054x599.jpg 1054w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-688x391.jpg 688w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18-1044x594.jpg 1044w, https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025-10-29-18.02.18.jpg 1270w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart by Robin Brooks, using NBS \/ Haver Analytics data (Dec 2024 \u2013 Sep 2025 projections). Used for analytical commentary. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">The tariff shock became a catalyst for processes that had been brewing within China for a long time. The export-oriented model, based on large volumes and low costs, began to fail. When the American market became less accessible, exporters faced a dilemma. The production system assumes the movement of goods without the accumulation of large warehouse stocks, so stopping the conveyor belt means stopping working capital. Therefore, the only way to absorb the impact of tariffs and maintain production capacity utilisation is to sharply reduce prices, stimulating demand domestically and in alternative export markets. Chinese manufacturers began to sell below cost, effectively sacrificing profitability in order to maintain turnover.     <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">This is where what could be called the \u2018Japanese track\u2019 begins. Three decades ago, Japan also hit a deflationary wall: an ageing population, limited domestic demand, a high propensity to save, and a decline in investment appetite. Some strategists at the time believed that the country was experiencing a temporary slowdown, but these temporary measures stretched into decades of economic stagnation, which later became known as the \u2018lost decade.\u2019 China is now following a similar trajectory: its population is ageing rapidly, domestic demand is weakening, and young people are exercising financial caution, lacking sufficient confidence in the future.   <\/p>\n\n<p style=\"line-height:1.2\">The difference between Japan and China lies in scale and geopolitical context. Japan experienced deflation in a world of open markets. China is facing it in an era of trade wars, deglobalisation, and the redistribution of production chains. To keep the economy afloat, the state is forced to subsidise corporations more and more, increasing the dependence of business on political decisions. This contradicts the very logic of a competitive market and pushes China towards a managed economy model.    <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-author\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__avatar\"><img alt='Avatar photo' src='https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-Simple-Minimalist-Creative-Studio-Logo-150-x-100-px-96x96.png' srcset='https:\/\/www.mondevudailleurs.ae\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-Simple-Minimalist-Creative-Studio-Logo-150-x-100-px-192x192.png 2x' class='avatar avatar-96 photo' height='96' width='96' \/><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-author__name\">La R\u00e9daction<\/p><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"La Chine entre dans une phase de d\u00e9flation. Il y a quelques ann\u00e9es encore, cela semblait impossible pour&hellip;","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[48],"class_list":{"0":"post-6255","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-economy","7":"tag-articles-en","8":"cs-entry","9":"cs-video-wrap"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chinese Deflation and Deglobalisation - Le Monde Vu D&#039;ailleurs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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